Upbeat music plays throughout.
[Screen shows “Weekly Market Outlook with Jeffrey Kleintop”]
[Jeff holds up an illustration of baseball]
As Major League Baseball’s division-series playoffs get underway, we could see curveballs this week from US inflation data, China’s stock market reopening, the minutes from the last Fed meeting, and quarterly bank earnings, I’m Jeff Kleintop with 90 seconds on what you need to know for the week ahead.
Monday is the one-year mark of the war in Gaza
[Jeff holds up an illustration of chess pieces imposed on a globe]
with escalating conflict pushing up oil prices 9% last week.
And on Tuesday, Chinese markets reopen
[Jeff holds up an illustration of boxes labelled with days of the week, with T circled]
after the Golden Week break following the announcement of a major stimulus program that lifted Chinese stocks into a new bull market. All eyes will be on travel and spending results from the holiday weekend as a sign of reviving consumer confidence.
On Wednesday, we get minutes
[Jeff holds up an illustration of man carrying a sack labelled “Rate Cut”]
from the September Fed meeting that could give more clarity into the decision to cut rates by 50 basis points and the outlook for the size of the cut at the next meeting on November 7 with markets confident in a step down to 25 basis points following Friday’s report that surprised on the upside for jobs.
On Thursday, we get US CPI for September,
[Jeff holds up an illustration of an alarm clock labelled “CPI”]
the final reading before the presidential election. The consensus expects a rise of 0.1% in inflation for September, a tick lower than the 0.2% in August and July. On a year-over-year basis, overall inflation is set to slow to 2.3% from 2.5%. We expect that progress would bolster the Fed's confidence that inflation is on a downward path and supports a cut of 25 basis points at that November meeting.
And on Thursday, the French government
[Jeff holds up an illustration of a piggy bank, labelled “Budget”]
presents the budget for 2025 for debate and possible amendments. The EU rules require a pullback in spending plans that’s incompatible with the spending initiatives proposed by candidates that prevailed during the recent election. So a budget battle could drive volatility in bond yields this week.
On Friday,
[Jeff holds up an illustration of a maple leaf labelled “Earnings Season”]
JP Morgan and Wells Fargo kick off the earnings season for the big Wall Street banks as third quarter earnings season finally begins to get underway.
[Jeff holds up sign saying "Thank You"]
Thanks for watching.
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