Stocks Flat on Soft Retail Sales, Jobs Data Loom

Published as of: February 10, 2026, 9:16 a.m. ET

(Tuesday market open) With a day to go before critical jobs data, investors hunkered down as they mulled disappointing retail sales data and mixed results from Coca-Cola (KO). Barring any unexpected developments, trading might be slow today with participants less willing to take large new positions ahead of the jobs report. That said, chip stocks, including Nvidia (NVDA) and Broadcom (AVGO), rose overnight, perhaps a sign the recent tech rally has more room to run.

December's retail sales data aren't likely to provide a lift, however, coming in unchanged from the prior month and below estimates for 0.4% growth. Stocks edged lower after the report and the 10-year Treasury note yield slipped to 4.16%, a nearly one-month low. "Retail sales were a bit of a disappointment, missing across the board in terms of expectations, plus slight downward revisions to last month," said Nathan Peterson, director of derivatives research and strategy at the Schwab Center for Financial Research (SCFR). "The last couple of retail sales reports have been relatively strong though, suggesting the upper half of the 'K economy' is holding up well. Today's report is only one data point, and we need a couple more reports to see if there is any change in trend, which has been signaling healthy consumer spending."

Monday saw seven of 11 S&P 500 sectors climb. Tech led the way, extending its rebound thanks partly to Oracle (ORCL) getting an analyst upgrade that eased some AI concerns. Assessing the possible impact of today's data, Peterson said, "Markets have largely been OK with poor sentiment readings via consumer confidence as long as upper income earners are continuing to spend, so we'll want to continue to monitor this, along with the job market and wage growth, in light of last week's soft labor market data."

1. What to look for in jobs report: Last week's employment data did little to change minds about what appears to be a downbeat jobs market, putting more emphasis on tomorrow's numbers. Last month, the Federal Reserve revised its statement in an upbeat manner, and some recent data looked solid. Still, job openings, ADP jobs growth, and layoffs readings harbored more bad news than good, contributing to Wall Street's woes and sending Treasury yields lower. The payrolls report for January could be more of the same, with the consensus view for jobs growth near 70,000. That's not dreadful like the negative reports from last summer, but well below average. Anything above 100,000 might be seen as constructive, while revisions to the last two reports will also carry weight considering the shutdown's impact on data. Also, investors might focus on transport job trends after transportation firms cut 30,000 positions last month, according to Challenger, Gray & Christmas. Also tomorrow, the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases its benchmark revisions for the March 2024 to March 2025 time period, which "are likely to show that job growth was significantly weaker than originally estimated," said Kathy Jones, chief fixed income strategist at SCFR.
    
2. Treasury tug of war: Yesterday's Bloomberg report that China's government discouraged purchases of U.S. Treasuries, if accurate, raises fresh "sell America" worries after a European pension fund recently spooked the market by stopping its purchases. If China follows suit even as Japan's growing economy attracts more assets there, the pressure on Treasuries might advance, sending yields higher and keeping borrowing costs elevated. One way to track demand is to monitor Treasury auctions, including a 3-year note auction today. Results should be out by early this afternoon. While the China news sent yields higher, current pressure on yields after today's retail sales data could grow if auction results impress, tomorrow's jobs data disappoint, and Friday's Consumer Price Index (CPI) stays tame. All that combined might influence Fed policy expectations. Market participants see just 17% chances of a rate cut next month, according to the CME FedWatch Tool, but bake in at least two cuts and possibly three by the end of the year.
    
3. Retail investors leaning in: The January Schwab Trading Activity Index^™ (STAX) climbed to 49.96, its highest reading since February and up from 48.48 in December. Net-buying across the info tech sector drove gains, with Microsoft (MSFT) leading all stocks in terms of net-buys. The action in Microsoft mostly occurred after shares dove following its earnings report the last week of the month. In general, retail traders bought dips in stocks after earnings. Other major names net-bought in January included Netflix (NFLX), Tesla (TSLA), Amazon (AMZN), and Nvidia (NVDA). Leading net-sells included Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Costco (COST), Boeing (BA), CoreWeave (CRWV), and Alibaba (BABA).

• Coca-Cola eased nearly 4% early today after the company's quarterly revenue came in shy of Wall Street's consensus view. Earnings per share slightly beat expectations, but revenue gains of 2.2% year over year to $11.8 billion were below the $12.03 billion Fact Set estimate. Organic revenues grew 5% and the company sees 4% to 5% organic revenue growth in 2026.
   
• Spotify (SPOT) advanced nearly 10% early today after announcing it added 38 million users last quarter to reach 751 million. The average analyst forecast, according to Bloomberg, was 745.2 million. Operating income outpaced estimates and gross margin improved.
   
• Alphabet (GOOGL) slipped 0.4% ahead of the open after news that it plans to issue $20 billion in its biggest ever U.S. dollar bond sale. It's also planning debut deals in Switzerland and the UK, including a rare sale of 100-year bonds, marking the first time a tech company has tried such an offering since the dot-com frenzy of the late 1990s.
   
• CVS Health (CVS) dropped about 2.5% in the early going despite surpassing analysts' expectations for earnings and revenue. The company expects 2026 revenue of at least $400 billion, but that appeared to be below Wall Street's estimates, CNBC reported.
   
• Software stocks came under pressure again this morning after last week's sell off, with Adobe (ADBE) and Salesforce (CRM) lower.
   
• Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) rose nearly 2% ahead of the open, bolstered by solid January revenue growth. This might be why some chip stocks climbed early today. Also, chips may be getting a lift from a Financial Times report that large U.S. tech firms may be exempt from pending semiconductor tariffs.
   
• AppLovin (APP) shares spiked 13% Monday and rose again Tuesday after a short seller apologized for and retracted an erroneous negative report on the company.
   
• Bitcoin (/BTC) slid more than 3% early today to back below $70,000, pulling down crypto-related stocks as well. "Investors are questioning if we are in another bitcoin winter," said Jim Ferraioli, director of digital currencies research and strategy at SCFR. "Putting the past few months in perspective, the biggest driver of this selloff has been deleveraging in derivatives market. As bitcoin has grown as an asset, it is no longer impacted by only the crypto market."
   
• Retail stocks got discounted Monday with Best Buy (BBY), Gap (GAP), Macy's (M), Nike (NKE), and Kohl's (KSS) all falling 2% or more. This suggests some of last week's rotation out of tech and into cyclical and "value" stocks got reversed Friday and Monday as some money rolled back into tech. The S&P 500 Equal Weight Index (SPXEW) barely rose Monday after outpacing the SPX most of the first five weeks of the year.
   
• Silver and gold stepped back slightly early today after both rose on Monday. Mining stocks dropped in line with the metals.
   
• Technically, the S&P 500 Index is back above its 50-day and 100-day moving averages after dropping below them last week, a positive move on the charts. But investors seem unwilling to push the index to new highs. U.S. large caps dominated net in-flows last week, followed by global equities and consumer cyclicals.
   

There's no magic marker showing how high the 10-year Treasury yield (TNX:CGI—candlesticks) would need to climb to start actively hurting stocks and the economy, but some point to the test in late 2023 of 5%, when a fierce rally in yields accompanied a 9% decline for the S&P 500 Index (purple line) between August and last October that year.

Check out the investors' calendar for a summary of the top economic events and earnings reports on tap this week.

February 11: January nonfarm payrolls and expected earnings from McDonald's (MCD), T-Mobile (TMUS), Shopify (SHOP), Humana (HUM), Cisco (CSCO), and AppLovin (APP).
February 12: January existing home sales, and expected earnings from Anheuser-Busch (BUD), Applied Materials (AMAT), Arista Networks (ANET), Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX), Brookfield (BN), Airbnb (ABNB), and Coinbase Global (COIN).
February 13: January CPI and January core CPI, and expected earnings from Enbridge (ENB) and Moderna (MRNA).
February 16: U.S. markets closed for President's Day.
February 17: Expected earnings from Medtronic (MDT), Constellation Energy (CEG), and Palo Alto Networks (PANW).