Market Up on Extended Ceasefire; Tesla Due Later

Published as of: April 22, 2026, 9:07 a.m. ET

(Wednesday market open) A ceasefire extension lifted Wall Street's spirits this morning after two straight days of selling, though crude oil edged up and talks between Iran and the U.S. appear to be on ice. With economic data sparse today, investors could focus on crude prices as they await results from Tesla (TSLA) and ServiceNow (NOW) after the close.

The last-minute reprieve prevented missiles from flying and reinforced beliefs that the war is a less than existential threat to markets. Still, investors might not want to be sanguine, especially with crude supplies dwindling in Europe, the Strait of Hormuz closed, and the U.S. blocking Iranian ships. "There's still a high level of uncertainty, and the stock market, at all-time highs, is basically putting a near 0% probability of a prolonged war and/or closure of the strait," said Nathan Peterson, director of derivatives research and strategy at the Schwab Center for Financial Research (SCFR). Volatility remains elevated, he added, and technically the market remains overbought in the near term.

Yesterday, losses steepened late as hopes for peace talks faded. The S&P 500 Index ended well off its highs and the small-cap Russell 2000 (RUT) index fell 1%. Earnings early today generally impressed, with most companies exceeding profit and revenue expectations. Next week features results from five of the Magnificent Seven. "If the rally continued to push higher, I'd be concerned that stocks, mostly within the tech space, are going to be set up for a 'sell on the news' earnings reaction," Peterson said.

1. Peace "FOMO" can't mask energy challenges: Though Wall Street appears to have "Fear of Missing Out," or "FOMO" on a peace deal, even if Iran and the U.S. signed one soon it wouldn't mean a quick recovery for the energy market. "Regardless of the strait reopening or not, energy prices will take time to normalize," warned Michelle Gibley, director of international equity research and strategy at SCFR. "It could take several months at a minimum to get back to 'normal' in some parts of the market, and damage to liquid natural gas production in Qatar could take several years to normalize. Physical delivery of oil and gas is constrained and isn't reflected in energy futures prices." Gibley also warned that a deal between Iran and the U.S. isn't necessarily a given, but added, "Constraints on U.S. politics going into the midterms and Iran's ability to survive without oil and liquid natural gas income could keep a deal within view."
    
2. Back to the office…or to the data center? During and just after the pandemic, weak office construction demand in a "stay-at-home economy" raised concerns that commercial real estate could be a continuing source of pressure. Back then, it might have been hard for investors to grasp how quickly construction and commercial real estate could revive without a major jump in office demand. It's what happened, however, thanks mainly to data center construction spending that's up from an annualized rate of $3 billion in 2016 to $47 billion today, according to data from the U.S. Census Bureau and Bloomberg. The past three months crystallized this, as data center construction spending surpassed general office spending. Office construction spending is now at an annualized rate of $43 billion, down from around $70 billion before the pandemic. Though data center construction supports the economy and the real estate sector as office construction weakens, it's not necessarily good news for people seeking long-term jobs like the kind they used to go to an office for. Data centers don't tend to employ heavily once they're built, and construction jobs are only there during construction.
    
3. Next steps for Warsh: Kevin Warsh, President Trump's nominee for Federal Reserve chairman, addressed beef prices—among other topics—at his Senate confirmation hearing Tuesday, but it was Warsh himself who got grilled. Senators asked tough questions about his inflation theories, his financial holdings, and whether he'd act independently of Trump if the president demanded rate cuts. Warsh defended his theory that the AI revolution could boost productivity, causing inflation to fall, and said Trump didn't demand that he lower rates as a condition of his nomination. Warsh promised he won't be Trump's "sock puppet," borrowing a term used by senators at the hearing. Chairman Jerome Powell's term ends May 15, but a Justice Department criminal investigation of Powell could hold up Warsh's confirmation. Senator Thom Tillis (R–N.C.) reiterated Tuesday that he won't vote for Warsh until the investigation ends, while Trump said last week he'd fire Powell if Powell doesn't step down next month. "That could trigger a lengthy court fight that could tie the Fed in knots for months," said Michael Townsend, managing director, legislative and regulatory affairs at Schwab. One related item to watch is a Supreme Court ruling on Trump's attempt to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook, something that could come any day. A ruling against Trump might ease concerns about Fed independence, something senators from both parties seemed concerned about yesterday.

• Boeing (BA) climbed 3% this morning, getting some wind under its wings from a narrower-than-expected quarterly loss. Its order backlog grew to a record $695 billion. The commercial airlines segment grew revenue 13% year-over-year in the first quarter, while defense, space, and security revenue rose 21%.
   
• GE Vernova (GEV) soared 8% in early trading after earnings and revenue surpassed consensus estimates and the company raised its fiscal 2026 guidance. Strength reflected heavy demand by data centers for power equipment, Reuters reported.
   
• United Airlines (UAL) gained around 1.5% early today. Quarterly results surpassed Wall Street's average earnings and revenue estimates. However, guidance for second quarter earnings per share was below the FactSet consensus. Full-year guidance was in line with consensus, but the company wrestles with high fuel costs and targets flat to 2% annual capacity growth in the third and fourth quarters. That's down from 3.4% gains in the first quarter.
   
• Best Buy (BBY) dropped 4.6% early today after announcing that Jason Bonfig, the company's chief customer, product, and fulfillment officer, will succeed Corie Barry as CEO at the end of the third quarter. Shares of Best Buy are down 36% since their late-August peak and recently got downgraded to sell by Goldman Sachs (GS), which cited higher costs.
   
• Alphabet (GOOGL) rose 1.5% early after updating investors about its cloud partnerships with a number of companies.
   
• T-Mobile US (TMUS) fell 1.5% Tuesday and slipped further this morning after Bloomberg reported late Tuesday that Deutsche Telekom is considering a merger with T-Mobile.
   
• ServiceNow (NOW) edged up 1.5% ahead of quarterly results later today. The report looms large as AI competition sent software shares reeling earlier this year. "If they can put up strong enough results to demonstrate that AI is an enabler for their business model, it could help shift the lingering narrative around AI disruption, but it may be too early to get a full shift," my colleague Peterson said.
   
• Tesla was up slightly ahead of earnings after the close. Auto deliveries missed market expectations last quarter, though EV demand may be up thanks to higher oil prices. The company's robotaxi, chip, and other robot initiatives will likely be scrutinized when Tesla reports. Analysts expect a 30% annual climb in first quarter adjusted profits and a 15% increase in revenue in the report today.
   
• Bitcoin futures (/BTC) climbed 5% this morning and matched the post-Iran high above $78,000. Shares of crypto-related stocks Strategy (MSTR), Circle Internet Group (CRCL), and Coinbase Global (COIN) all rose 4% to 6% in sync with bitcoin. Strength in crypto often indicates a "risk-on" climate.
   
• The memory chip sector enjoyed solid gains ahead of the open, including 3% for both Seagate Technology (STX) and Western Digital (WDC). SanDisk (SNDK) rose 2%. Another chip stock on a roll, Intel (INTC), climbed 1.6% early today ahead of tomorrow's earnings.

The PHLX Semiconductor Index (SOX—candlesticks), which hit new all-time highs this week, remained resilient Tuesday, climbing roughly 1% as Intel rose ahead of its earnings Thursday. SOX is up 35% from its March 30 closing low for the year. It's also outpacing year-to-date gains for two of its biggest contributors, Nvidia (purple line) and Micron (blue line).

Check out the investors' calendar for a summary of the top economic events and earnings reports on tap this week.

April 23: Expected earnings from American Express (AXP), NextEra Energy (NEE), Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO), Honeywell (HON), Union Pacific (UNP), Lockheed Martin (LMT), Blackstone (BX), Comcast (CMCSA), Freeport-McMoRan (FCX), Intel (INTC), Gilead Sciences (GILD), and Newmont (NEM).

April 24: Final April University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment.

April 27: Expected earnings from Verizon (VZ), Domino's Pizza (DPZ), Public Storage (PSA), and Nucor (NUE).

April 28: April consumer confidence and expected earnings from Coca-Cola (KO), Novartis AG (NVS), Corning (GLW), BP PLC (BP), Spotify (SPOT), UPS (UPS), American Tower (AMT), Sherwin-Williams (SHW), Visa (V), T-Mobile (TMUS), Seagate (STX), Starbucks (SBUX), Waste Management (WM), and Mondelez (MDLZ). 

April 29: February housing starts and building permits, March durable orders, February new home sales, FOMC interest rate decision, and expected earnings from Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOGL), Meta (META), Abbvie (ABBV), and Qualcomm (QCOM).