Stocks Up Ahead of Peace Talks, Fed Nominee Hearing

Published as of: April 21, 2026, 9:10 a.m. ET

(Tuesday market open) Stocks turned green today heading into key meetings in Washington and perhaps Pakistan. The 10 a.m. ET Senate Banking Committee hearing for Kevin Warsh, President Trump's pick to head the Federal Reserve, gives investors a chance to hear the nominee's thoughts on inflation and economic growth, though market impact isn't assured. The talks between the U.S. and Iran in Pakistan are up in the air, and media reports say there's little progress toward ending the conflict just a day before the ceasefire expires. The U.S. threatened to attack Iran if a deal isn't reached by tomorrow night, which could keep investors cautious with stocks near all-time highs after a sizzling rally stalled yesterday, though crude inched lower early Tuesday.

Aside from those meetings thousands of miles apart, March retail sales this morning checked in with a 1.7% monthly gain, well above the 1.3% Briefing.com consensus and 0.7% in February. That sounds impressive, but much of the rise reflected a 15% jump in gasoline prices. "This was pretty strong report even with inflation," said Collin Martin, head of fixed income research and strategy at the Schwab Center for Financial Research (SCFR). "The 'ex-auto and gas' series beat expectations, and the control group, which feeds into the GDP report, also came in strong."

On Monday, major indexes slipped on rising oil prices and war worries. The Nasdaq Composite snapped a 13-session win streak. Earnings accelerate today with 3M (MMM), UnitedHealth Group (UNH), and United Airlines (UAL) even as the market buzzes over Monday's late news that Apple (AAPL) CEO Tim Cook plans to step down. Earnings so far deserve about a B+, but they generally haven't reflected sectors like industrials or discretionary that suffered most from costly oil. The next two weeks feature many of those firms and could shape the narrative.

1. Retail sales deeper dive: Though today's retail sales gain sounds impressive--was to some extent--the report doesn't adjust for inflation. Meaning rising prices were one force behind the rising sales. More important, perhaps, were retail sales excluding automobiles, which rose 1.9%, along with the under-the-radar reading on control group retail sales, which feed into the government's gross domestic product, or GDP, calculation and exclude sales from auto dealers, building materials stores, and gas stations. The control group rise was 0.7%, up from 0.6% in February and at the high end of Bloomberg's expectation range. While strength at the retail counter could indicate resilient consumers who don't necessarily need more rate cuts, Treasury yields rose only slightly on the data, "as this suggests that we're not necessarily seeing negative economic consequences from the war just yet," Martin said. "The gains were broad based, with almost all subcomponents of the retail sales report coming in positive for the month."
    
2. From nuts and bolts to leg room: GE Aerospace (GE) earnings today and Boeing (BA) tomorrow offer a look under the surface at the industrial sector, which is the third-best S&P 500 sector performer year-to-date with gains of nearly 12%. Hopes for industrial recovery, shaped in part by stronger manufacturing readings the last few months, would likely tick up even more if these firms impressed. However, they're likely to face higher costs if the war continues, raising questions about margins. Preliminary April S&P Global data due Thursday provides the next broader look at manufacturing growth after a solid March performance. Consumer demand, meanwhile, comes into view later today when United Airlines (UAL) reports. Delta Air Lines (DAL), which reported earlier this month, maintained its guidance despite higher fuel prices but also discussed reducing capacity to deal with the fuel situation. The question is whether United and other airlines follow suit, which could push ticket prices even higher and perhaps quell flying demand. Another question is whether United remains in a buying mood after American Airlines (AAL) rejected United's move to acquire it last week. Any acquisition could face trouble in Washington, D.C., it seems, considering senators from both parties questioned how a United takeover of American could affect travelers, the Wall Street Journal reported.
    
3. Powell succession back in spotlight: The Senate Banking Committee's confirmation hearing today for Warsh, Trump's nominee to succeed Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, could provide fireworks. It also could give investors a chance to get Warsh's perspective on recent economic developments and how he might suggest responding to oil-driven inflation despite his reputation as a "dove" on rates. His views have more impact on trading the closer he gets to becoming chairman. However, that date is up in the air. "The timeline is very tight for confirming Warsh before Powell's term as chair ends on May 15," said Michael Townsend, managing director of legislative and regulatory affairs at Schwab. "We still have the issue of Senator Thom Tillis blocking any vote on Warsh until the criminal investigation of Powell is resolved." Powell has said he'll remain as temporary chairman if there's a delay past May 15. That could mean more fireworks, because Trump last week threatened to fire Powell if he stays on as chair beyond his term. Warsh has backed rate cuts based in part on what he sees as improving U.S. productivity that could keep inflation checked. He's also likely to be asked his views on Fed independence, something he called "essential" in remarks he's scheduled to deliver at the start of the hearing.

• Apple initially rose and then slipped ahead of the open on news that longtime CEO Cook plans to hand over the reins to John Ternus on September 1, with Cook becoming executive chairman. Ternus, 50, is currently a senior vice president of hardware engineering and joined Apple in 2001. Analysts noted his product experience, saying it could raise expectations for Apple to deliver new devices. The timing of the announcement suggests near-term results are resilient, Bank of America noted. Apple reports next week.
   
• GE Aerospace (GE) fell 3% despite earnings and revenue beating analysts' expectations. GE also reaffirmed guidance, which it says includes expectations for continued high crude prices.
   
• Amazon (AMZN) rallied 3% after announcing it will invest as much as $25 billion in Anthropic to help build its AI infrastructure, even as Anthropic said it plans to spend more than $100 billion on Amazon's AWS cloud over the next 10 years. This is "another vote of confidence in AWS's chip technology," Bank of America said in a note.
   
• 3M (MMM) slipped 2.5% early despite beating analysts' expectations for earnings and meeting them on revenue. It also reaffirmed guidance for fiscal 2026.
   
• UnitedHealth Group (UNH) soared more than 7% after earnings and revenue beat Wall Street's expectations, the company raised its full-year earnings guidance, and the company cited a medical-loss ratio of 83.9%, below consensus and a sign of improved cost management. Competitor Humana (HUM) got a ride on UNH's coattails, up 4%, while CVS Health (CVS) climbed 3%.
   
• Northrop Grumman (NOC) fell 1.9% early despite topping Wall Street's earnings and revenue estimates and reaffirming fiscal year guidance. In its release, the defense firm cited "robust bookings" and "continued strong demand." Shares of defense firm RTX (RTX) also climbed this morning on strong earnings and a guidance hike.
   
• D.R. Horton (DHI) jumped more than 6% after beating analysts' earnings consensus and meeting revenue expectations. The home builder also reduced the upper end of its guidance ranges. Net sales orders rose 11% in the quarter, the company said, but its release still cited "affordability constraints and cautious consumer sentiment."
   
• AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) fell almost 6% Monday after a failed satellite launch over the weekend.
   
• Chip stocks rose again Monday, led by Marvell Technology (MRVL), Arm Holdings (ARM), and ASML (ASML). The PHLX Semiconductor Index (SOX) is enjoying its longest win streak since 2002, Barron's reported.

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The Russell 2000 Index (RUT—candlesticks) is ahead of the Nasdaq 100 (NDX—blue line) and the S&P 500 Index (SPX—purple line) year-to-date, possibly a sign of investors seeking value stocks and names that aren't as exposed to international markets amid volatile geopolitics. Though the Russell 2000—composed of small-cap names—is at record highs, keep in mind that many stocks within the index have no profits, meaning it's important to be choosy when investing in smaller companies.

Check out the investors' calendar for a summary of the top economic events and earnings reports on tap this week.

April 22: Expected earnings from GE Vernova (GEV), Philip Morris (PM), AT&T (T), Boeing (BA), Tesla (TSLA), Lam Research (LRCK), IBM (IBM), Texas Instruments (TXN), ServiceNow (NOW), and CSX (CSX).

April 23: Expected earnings from American Express (AXP), NextEra Energy (NEE), Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO), Honeywell (HON), Union Pacific (UNP), Lockheed Martin (LMT), Blackstone (BX), Comcast (CMCSA), Freeport-McMoRan (FCX), Intel (INTC), Gilead Sciences (GILD), and Newmont (NEM).

April 24: Final April University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment.

April 27: Expected earnings from Verizon (VZ), Domino's Pizza (DPZ), Public Storage (PSA), and Nucor (NUE).

April 28: April consumer confidence and expected earnings from Coca-Cola (KO), Novartis AG (NVS), Corning (GLW), BP PLC (BP), Spotify (SPOT), UPS (UPS), American Tower (AMT), Sherwin-Williams (SHW), Visa (V), T-Mobile (TMUS), Seagate (STX), Starbucks (SBUX), Waste Management (WM), and Mondelez (MDLZ).