Stocks Slip Early on Inflation Data, GDP Dip
Published as of: April 9, 2026, 9:15 a.m. ET
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| The markets | Last price | Change | % change |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500® Index | 6,782.81 | +165.96 | +2.51% |
| Dow Jones Industrial Average® | 47,909.92 | +1,325.46 | +2.85% |
| Nasdaq Composite® | 22,635.00 | +617.15 | +2.80% |
| 10-year Treasury yield | 4.29% | +0.02 | -- |
| U.S. Dollar Index | 98.95 | -0.18 | -0.18% |
| Cboe Volatility Index® | 21.23 | +0.20 | +0.95% |
| WTI Crude Oil | $99.43 | +5.06 | +5.39% |
| Bitcoin | $71,330 | -$145 | -0.20% |
(Thursday market open) Though the temporary ceasefire is "fragile" according to the Trump administration and the Strait of Hormuz hasn't reopened, investors applied their full attention to fresh U.S. data today. Stocks took a breather from yesterday's fierce rally after the February Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price report showed 0.4% headline and core increases. Analysts had expected 0.4% headline growth and 0.3% for the core, which excludes food and energy. Annual core inflation—closely watched by the Federal Reserve—climbed 3%, in line with expectations.
"Inflation isn't showing signs of slowing, which is concerning given the situation in the Middle East," said Cooper Howard, director of fixed income research and strategy at the Schwab Center for Financial Research (SCFR). "The longer oil remains elevated, the greater the possibility that it translates into higher inflation going forward. Since we're already at levels that are above the Fed's 2% target, it's likely concerning for the Fed."
Major U.S. indexes soared 2.5% Wednesday in a high-volume relief rally led by cyclical sectors like discretionary, industrials, info tech, and communication services that tend to do best in a strong economy. Still, it could take many weeks to get global supply chains on track, assuming the ceasefire lasts. If markets believe the strait will reopen and transit levels grow, the geopolitical risk premium likely stays lower. If not, crude can snap back. It remains well above pre-war levels and rose today as Iran and the U.S. traded ceasefire violation accusations and prepared for weekend talks.
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Three things to watch
- PCE, GDP deeper dive into data: Buried in today's data was a disappointing read on February personal income that could raise new concerns at the Fed. Personal income dropped 0.1% when analysts had expected a 0.5% increase. Separately but related, the government's final fourth quarter gross domestic product (GDP) estimate fell to 0.5% from the previous 0.7%, another sign of economic weakness. The GDP data is dated and investors are more focused on first quarter economic growth, but fourth quarter GDP ended up lower than the market had anticipated. Combined with recent higher oil and weaker personal income, it raises concerns about consumer health. Also, the 0.4% PCE price rise occurred in February, before the war started, reminding investors that inflation isn't just oil related. The last Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate for first quarter GDP was an anemic 1.3%, trending down over the last few weeks as investors await the government's first official first quarter GDP estimate later this month. In other data this morning, initial weekly jobless claims rose to 219,000, above recent levels but not likely to raise eyebrows.
- For strait talk, keep an eye on traffic: Yesterday's open again, closed again scenario with the Strait of Hormuz keeps market focus on that narrow passage. About 800 ships remain stuck in the Persian Gulf as Iran and the U.S. continued haggling. The best way to monitor shipping there is through various marine traffic sites that track ships, though some ships turned off their lights and GPS tracking. Maritime security company Vanguard Maritime Solutions yesterday urged ships planning to cross the strait to take caution and remain aware of possible navigational hazards during a mass exodus from the strait, The Wall Street Journal reported. On Wednesday, global logistics firm Maersk said in a note on its site that it expects the situation to remain dynamic. "The ceasefire may be fragile due to disagreements including the desire of Iran to continue to control traffic, either by granting approval to vessels and/or charging fees for transit," said Michelle Gibley, director of international equity research and strategy, SCFR. "While hostilities may end, the impact on energy prices and the economy is likely to linger. The initial market relief rally may be followed by more volatility in coming days."
- CPI waits in wings: Overshadowing PCE, perhaps, is tomorrow's 8:30 a.m. ET March Consumer Price Index (CPI), the first government inflation data to reflect prices during the recent conflict. The average 0.7% monthly growth estimate for headline CPI likely reflects a vital contribution from rising gasoline costs. Annual headline CPI is seen up 3.3% year over year, but just 2.7% for core CPI. "If inflation has a 'three handle' in March, real wage growth might be close to zero or even negative," said Kevin Gordon, head of macro research and strategy at SCFR. "Nominal average hourly earnings for non-supervisory workers fell to 3.4% in March." With so much volatility last month as the war started and oil surged, it might be best to take near-term data with a grain of salt. April's data due next month might be more key, showing where things landed after the first rumblings of conflict played out in the market. Still, CPI is a good read on housing prices, so that aspect of the report might be interesting amid signs that rental expenses are finally calming down.
Crypto currents
Bitcoin's dual identity: Sometimes it seems like bitcoin's every move prompts a new round of claims about what kind of asset it really is, naturally with big implications for how investors should approach it. Momentum trade, tech stock, digital gold? It doesn't help that bitcoin is nearly uncorrelated with any other asset class over a multi-year time frame, while often closely tracking some assets across shorter time periods, as it did with software stocks earlier this year. Over the long term, it tracks stocks most closely, but at 0.3, the correlation is very weak. This lack of consensus means bitcoin often trades on momentum and people's feelings, or under certain conditions as a macro asset, said Jim Ferraioli, SCFR's director of digital currencies research and strategy. Zooming out, though, bitcoin is actually both a risk asset and an effective hedge against monetary debasement—the two aren't mutually exclusive—but it gets whipped around in shorter time frames by various competing market forces, Ferraioli said. The bottom line is, bitcoin's supply is finite, which means a permanent mismatch with the supply of money, a mismatch that could eventually result in bitcoin becoming a stable, "boring" asset whose price rises roughly in line with the money supply, more like a perpetual Treasury Inflation-Protected Security than a commodity, he said.
" id="body_disclosure--media_disclosure--190016" >Bitcoin's dual identity: Sometimes it seems like bitcoin's every move prompts a new round of claims about what kind of asset it really is, naturally with big implications for how investors should approach it. Momentum trade, tech stock, digital gold? It doesn't help that bitcoin is nearly uncorrelated with any other asset class over a multi-year time frame, while often closely tracking some assets across shorter time periods, as it did with software stocks earlier this year. Over the long term, it tracks stocks most closely, but at 0.3, the correlation is very weak. This lack of consensus means bitcoin often trades on momentum and people's feelings, or under certain conditions as a macro asset, said Jim Ferraioli, SCFR's director of digital currencies research and strategy. Zooming out, though, bitcoin is actually both a risk asset and an effective hedge against monetary debasement—the two aren't mutually exclusive—but it gets whipped around in shorter time frames by various competing market forces, Ferraioli said. The bottom line is, bitcoin's supply is finite, which means a permanent mismatch with the supply of money, a mismatch that could eventually result in bitcoin becoming a stable, "boring" asset whose price rises roughly in line with the money supply, more like a perpetual Treasury Inflation-Protected Security than a commodity, he said.
On the move
- Marvell Technology (MRVL) climbed 3.3% early following an upgrade by Barclays to overweight from equal weight. Barclays believes the company's optical business could grow 90% for this year and next, even with some market share shift to Broadcom (AVGO).
- Constellation Brands (STZ) dipped 1% after the marketer and producer of beer, wine, and spirits reported better-than-expected quarterly results but lower-than-expected fiscal 2027 earnings per share guidance, citing an operating environment that remains "dynamic."
- CoreWeave (CRWV) gained 2.3% after the AI cloud computing company announced an expanded infrastructure deal with Meta Platforms (META), CNBC reported.
- Energy company stocks climbed and airline and cruise companies fell early Thursday as the price of oil rose amid shifting tides in the ceasefire and slow traffic in the strait.
- Tesla (TSLA) slipped 1% Wednesday as oil prices fell, leading to concerns that EV demand might not grow as much as expected.
- In the wake of today's data, chances of a pause at this month's Fed meeting remained near 98%, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Chances of at least one cut this year are near 28%, up slightly from yesterday, while chances of a single hike are around 1%.
- Treasury yields rose after a $39 billion 10-year note auction met weak demand yesterday following Tuesday's solid 3-year note sale. The 10-year sale drew a high yield of 4.28%, Briefing.com noted, above the level initially traded in the Treasury market Wednesday. The Treasury market quickly adjusted, with the 10-year yield quickly jumping to 4.28% by late in yesterday's session from lows of 4.20% earlier.
More insights from Schwab
Younger investors grow cautious: The March Schwab Trading Activity Index (STAX) showed younger investors getting more conservative as the war began, but Gen X and Baby Boomers barely budging in terms of their approach to the market, our latest read on generational trends in the data shows.
D.C. update: Some of the developments we're tracking in Washington include the looming fight in Congress over funding the war, the ongoing shutdown of the Department of Homeland Security, and the uncertainty surrounding when and whether the Fed will get new leadership.
Crypto weighting examined: Anyone investing in cryptocurrencies likely wonders how much of their portfolio should be allocated in that direction. Our new video shows a way investors can calculate how much crypto might be appropriate for their individual portfolios.
Why gambling and investing are different: When you invest in a stock, a bond, or a diversified portfolio, you are acquiring a claim on future cash flows and productive assets—on the compounding engine of capitalism itself. You are not a spectator. You're not wagering on an outcome and walking away with either a windfall or nothing. Gambling is rising in popularity, but our analysis explains why it's not like investing.
Chart of the day
S&P Dow Jones Indices
After a bearish development late last month when the 50-day moving average (top blue line) of the S&P 500 Index (SPX—candlesticks) fell below the 100-day moving average (red line), the SPX reclaimed both its 200-day moving average (bottom blue line) and the 50-day moving average. The 100-day moving average just above 6,800 is the next target for bulls, and a climbing relative strength index (RSI—lower chart) suggests they may have momentum.
The week ahead
Check out the investors' calendar for a summary of the top economic events and earnings reports on tap this week.
April 10: March CPI, March core CPI, preliminary April University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment.
April 13: Expected earnings from Goldman Sachs (GS), March existing home sales.
April 14: March PPI, March core PPI, and expected earnings from JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Wells Fargo (WFC), Citigroup (C), BlackRock (BLK).
April 15: Expected earnings from ASML (ASML), Bank of America (BAC), Morgan Stanley (MS), Progressive (PGR), PNC Financial (PNC), and JB Hunt Transport (JBHT).
April 16: March industrial production and expected earnings from Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM), PepsiCo (PEP), Abbott Laboratories (ABT), Prologis (PLD), Marsh & McLennan (MRSH), Bank of New York Mellon (BK), U.S. Bancorp (USB), Travelers (TRV), Infosys (INFY), Netflix (NFLX), and Alcoa (AA).