With Assist from Crude, Stocks Stage Early Rally

March 4, 2026 Joe Mazzola
Stocks edged up as crude prices dropped on hopes for protection of Persian Gulf shipping. War remains the focus, but February ADP jobs data improved and Broadcom reports later.

Published as of: March 4, 2026, 9:24 a.m. ET

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The markets Last price Change % change
S&P 500® Index 6,816.63 -64.99 -0.94%
Dow Jones Industrial Average® 48,501.27 -403.51 -0.83%
Nasdaq Composite® 22,516.69 -232.17 -1.02%
10-year Treasury yield 4.06% +0.01 --
U.S. Dollar Index 98.83 -0.21 -0.22%
Cboe Volatility Index® 22.33 -1.25 -5.30%
WTI Crude Oil $74.14 -$0.42 -0.60%
Bitcoin $71,705 +$3,240 +4.73%

(Wednesday market open) Wall Street enters mid-week on cautious footing, watching every twist and turn in the Iran conflict. Though bears largely remain in control, major indexes edged up this morning amid info tech strength, taking a breather after yesterday's harsh decline. The war showed no signs of calming, however, as NATO forces shot down an Iranian missile headed toward Turkey and Iranian drones hit Saudi oil refining facilities, according to media reports.

"While the hope for everyone is that the conflict is short-lived, financial markets are mainly pricing in the tail risk of significantly higher oil prices and the potential ramifications on the economy, inflation, monetary policy, and by extension, corporate profits," said Nathan Peterson, director of derivatives research and strategy at the Schwab Center for Financial Research, or SCFR. In one sign of the conflict starting to hit home, U.S. gasoline prices now average $3.19 per gallon, the highest since September, according to AAA. Crude oil backtracked slightly this morning and briefly fell under $74 per barrel, down from peaks near $78 earlier this week.

On Tuesday, major indexes all fell about 1% but rebounded from early lows as President Trump promised protection for Gulf shipping. Today, investors await earnings from chip behemoth Broadcom (AVGO) later after ADP February jobs data this morning. The ADP reading, which tracks private sector jobs, showed February growth of 63,000. That was above Briefing.com's consensus of 42,000 and a downwardly revised 11,000, in January, but manufacturing jobs still fell. Friday's February nonfarm payrolls report is expected to show growth of 60,000, down from 130,000 in January, with unemployment steady at 4.3%.

(To learn more about possible scenarios for the markets from the war, please see "More insights from Schwab" lower in this article.)

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Three things to watch

  1. New tariff regime features winners, losers: The Supreme Court's decision last month overturning some of President Trump's signature tariffs threw global trade into confusion that hasn't faded over the last two weeks. "There's no question that the global trade environment is dramatically reshaped," said Michael Townsend, managing director of legislative and regulatory affairs at Schwab. "There will be some clear, short-term winners." Brazil's 50% tariff imposed by Trump will fall to 15%, as will the 20% tariff on imports from Vietnam. U.S. companies may accelerate their imports from there and other countries, Townsend said. This could be good news for Apple (AAPL), among the many U.S. firms that recently moved some of its manufacturing to Vietnam. It also may provide U.S. shoppers some relief at the grocery store when they buy goods like coffee sourced from Brazil. At this point, tariff policy is still wrapped in confusion. President Trump initially said he would impose a 10% global tariff for 150 days under a different emergency authority. Then he said it would be 15%. But when it kicked in last Tuesday, it was 10%. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said today that the 15% global tariff will probably be implemented this week, CNBC reported, but still can only last 150 days unless Congress approves an extension.
     
  2. Redemption surge from private credit funds: Blackstone (BLK) made headlines after a late Monday filing showed its flagship private credit fund, BCRED, saw an unprecedented surge in redemptions. Investors withdrew roughly 8% of the fund last quarter, forcing Blackstone to raise its withdrawal cap and—combined with their employees—contribute $400 million in capital to meet redemption requests. The move follows similar pressure seen at Blue Owl Capital earlier this year. The alternative asset manager sold $1.4 billion in assets from three of its private credit funds last month in order to return capital to investors when one of its funds met its redemption limits. Investor anxiety surrounding private credit and loans tied to ailing software companies has intensified following major asset managers' recent moves to allow fund withdrawals. Blackstone stock sank as much as 8% before paring some of its losses on Tuesday after the news of its private credit fund redemptions broke.
     
  3. Checking the corporate credit spreads: After last week's private credit fears centered on software hurt financial stocks, investors might want to monitor corporate credit spreads this week. They're up a bit this year, but still low in absolute terms, suggesting the corporate bond markets are generally healthy with corporate profits near all-time highs. Investors can monitor the spreads of key corporate bond indexes through FRED®, the St. Louis Federal Reserve Economic Data website. "Credit fundamentals still seem relatively strong right now," said Collin Martin, head of fixed income research and strategy at the Schwab Center for Financial Research. "We're seeing more of an impact in the broadly syndicated loan market, given their lower ratings and more exposure to the tech and software sectors. It's possible this is more of a liquidity issue than a solvency issue. Either way, this should result in more volatility in the riskier parts of the market like high-yield bonds and bank loans."

On the move

  • U.S. crude oil traded flat early today but overseas prices continued to climb. Attacks on U.S. embassies in the Gulf region heightened concerns, and so did the missile shot down by NATO and spreading conflict in Lebanon between Israel and Hezbollah. Iran's attacks on Gulf countries sparked worries that oil production could be affected, with shipping lanes already affected by the conflict.
     
  • Energy stocks Exxon Mobil (XOM), ConocoPhillips (COP), and Chevron (CVX) eased early Wednesday.
     
  • The U.S. Dollar Index ($DXY) slipped early today but remains at multi-month highs. The strength could reflect so-called "safe haven" buying as investors search for shelters in the storm, though no investment is truly safe. Worries about European economies after the sudden sharp rise in energy costs this week might also help account for dollar strength.
     
  • CrowdStrike (CRWD) inched higher early Wednesday following earnings late Tuesday from the cybersecurity firm. Results came in a little better than consensus for earnings and in line for revenue, and guidance mostly matched consensus or slightly exceeded it. Shares entered today down 17% this year, caught up in the general software sector selling amid AI substitution fears.
     
  • Shares of Box (BOX), a content management provider, climbed nearly 5% before the open as earnings and revenue beat expectations.
     
  • GitLab (GTLB) shares declined more than 8% in early action as the software firm offered guidance that appeared to disappoint investors.
     
  • Broadcom edged up about 0.8% ahead of its earnings due later. Focus when Broadcom reports could be on its partnership with Anthropic, which commits Anthropic to buying billions of dollars in custom chips from Broadcom. Last time out, Broadcom topped consensus with its results and forecast strength in its business.
     
  • Ross Stores (ROST) added 6.4% ahead of the open after the retailer's quarterly results turned out better than analysts had expected. The market also seemed impressed by the company's outlook.
     
  • United Airlines (UAL), Delta Air Lines (DAL), and Southwest (LUV) traded flat to higher before the open after taking war-related dives earlier this week.
     
  • Tech shares fell more than 1% Tuesday amid generally risk-off trading sentiment. Apple (AAPL) dropped 0.5% and Nvidia (NVDA) lost just over 1%, though Apple could be in focus today with a series of events planned that might include product introductions related to Mac and iPad. Software shares rose late Tuesday, a sign that dip buying may remain a factor.
     
  • Consumer-oriented stocks descended for the second straight day Tuesday. Worries about rising gas costs and a longer wait for Fed rate cuts could both be behind this. Neither would help consumers much. Some of the major consumer names falling 2% or more Tuesday included Nike (NKE), Macy's (M), Tesla (TSLA), Gap (GAP), Ford (F), and Whirlpool (WHR).
     
  • As of this morning, the CME FedWatch Tool sees almost no odds of a Fed rate cut this month, and only 39% chances of a cut by the Fed's June meeting. Investors now see more likelihood of one or two cuts this year, pulling back on chances of three or more. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack told The New York Times she backs steady rates and added it's too early to assess the economic impact of the war.
     
  • Later this morning, investors brace for ISM Services PMI®. The Briefing.com consensus is 53.9%, not much of a change from 53.8% in January. The main thing to watch here might be prices after ISM's manufacturing report out earlier this week revealed a dramatic increase.
     
  • Bitcoin (/BTC), which can be a key indicator of how much risk investors are willing to take, rallied more than 4% early today, rising above $71,000 for the first time since February 9. Crypto-related stocks Strategy (MSTR) and Coinbase Global (COIN) climbed 6% and 5%, respectively.
     
  • Silver and gold inched higher this morning, helping lift mining stocks.
     
  • From a technical basis, the S&P 500 Index closed above key support levels Tuesday and is down less than 1% from Friday's close, a time before the war began. Technically, chart watchers went into this week with their eyes on the 6,750 to 6,775 area for the SPX, and those have held so far. Other areas to watch include 24,500 for the Nasdaq-100® (NDX), and the 50-day simple moving average for the small-cap Russell 2000® (RUT) of around 2,618, which are also down less than 1% since Friday. Small caps performed worse than their larger counterparts Tuesday as rate cut hopes got set back by higher crude prices.

More insights from Schwab

Bullish, neutral, and bearish market cases for Iran conflict: At this point, considering the various scenarios about how the current situation could evolve is the best approach, said Chris Ferrarone, head of equity research and strategy at SCFR. 

  • Under the neutral case of de-escalation and a stable Strait of Hormuz, oil prices are expected to trade in a range around pre-crisis prices, providing a neutral backdrop for global equities and credit markets in this scenario, episodes of volatility are likely to persist as deescalation plays out, Ferrarone said.
  • In adverse scenarios involving supply outages or an extended closure of the strait, oil prices could spike well above $100, leading to stagflation risks and heightened financial volatility, Ferrarone said. However, high spare capacity and diversified global supply could reduce the likelihood of catastrophic outcomes, he said.
  • A rapid resolution accompanied by a regime collapse in Iran could be a bullish surprise for risk assets—though regime change at this point seems a complicated and uncertain process, he said. In that optimistic scenario, the removal of the geopolitical risk premium could push oil prices lower than their pre-attack price below the prior baseline—and spur rallies in equities, particularly in Asia Pacific and Europe. Safe haven assets would likely decline, and central banks could accelerate rate cuts as energy prices fall, Ferrarone said.
  • In the short term, uncertainty is likely to prevail, and investors are likely to react by preparing for an adverse scenario. "Don’t overreact to the news," said Kathy Jones, chief fixed income strategist at SCFR. "A diversified portfolio should be able to withstand volatility in the short term. If investors are not well diversified, it might be time to look at portfolio allocations. But it probably isn't a good time to swing for the fences, given the wide range of potential outcomes. The past isn't necessarily a perfect guide to the future, but previous experience tells us that staying the course during times of heightened global risks, generally, is the right strategy."
     

Bullish, neutral, and bearish market cases for Iran conflict: At this point, considering the various scenarios about how the current situation could evolve is the best approach, said Chris Ferrarone, head of equity research and strategy at SCFR. 

  • Under the neutral case of de-escalation and a stable Strait of Hormuz, oil prices are expected to trade in a range around pre-crisis prices, providing a neutral backdrop for global equities and credit markets in this scenario, episodes of volatility are likely to persist as deescalation plays out, Ferrarone said.
  • In adverse scenarios involving supply outages or an extended closure of the strait, oil prices could spike well above $100, leading to stagflation risks and heightened financial volatility, Ferrarone said. However, high spare capacity and diversified global supply could reduce the likelihood of catastrophic outcomes, he said.
  • A rapid resolution accompanied by a regime collapse in Iran could be a bullish surprise for risk assets—though regime change at this point seems a complicated and uncertain process, he said. In that optimistic scenario, the removal of the geopolitical risk premium could push oil prices lower than their pre-attack price below the prior baseline—and spur rallies in equities, particularly in Asia Pacific and Europe. Safe haven assets would likely decline, and central banks could accelerate rate cuts as energy prices fall, Ferrarone said.
  • In the short term, uncertainty is likely to prevail, and investors are likely to react by preparing for an adverse scenario. "Don’t overreact to the news," said Kathy Jones, chief fixed income strategist at SCFR. "A diversified portfolio should be able to withstand volatility in the short term. If investors are not well diversified, it might be time to look at portfolio allocations. But it probably isn't a good time to swing for the fences, given the wide range of potential outcomes. The past isn't necessarily a perfect guide to the future, but previous experience tells us that staying the course during times of heightened global risks, generally, is the right strategy."
     
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Bullish, neutral, and bearish market cases for Iran conflict: At this point, considering the various scenarios about how the current situation could evolve is the best approach, said Chris Ferrarone, head of equity research and strategy at SCFR. 

  • Under the neutral case of de-escalation and a stable Strait of Hormuz, oil prices are expected to trade in a range around pre-crisis prices, providing a neutral backdrop for global equities and credit markets in this scenario, episodes of volatility are likely to persist as deescalation plays out, Ferrarone said.
  • In adverse scenarios involving supply outages or an extended closure of the strait, oil prices could spike well above $100, leading to stagflation risks and heightened financial volatility, Ferrarone said. However, high spare capacity and diversified global supply could reduce the likelihood of catastrophic outcomes, he said.
  • A rapid resolution accompanied by a regime collapse in Iran could be a bullish surprise for risk assets—though regime change at this point seems a complicated and uncertain process, he said. In that optimistic scenario, the removal of the geopolitical risk premium could push oil prices lower than their pre-attack price below the prior baseline—and spur rallies in equities, particularly in Asia Pacific and Europe. Safe haven assets would likely decline, and central banks could accelerate rate cuts as energy prices fall, Ferrarone said.
  • In the short term, uncertainty is likely to prevail, and investors are likely to react by preparing for an adverse scenario. "Don’t overreact to the news," said Kathy Jones, chief fixed income strategist at SCFR. "A diversified portfolio should be able to withstand volatility in the short term. If investors are not well diversified, it might be time to look at portfolio allocations. But it probably isn't a good time to swing for the fences, given the wide range of potential outcomes. The past isn't necessarily a perfect guide to the future, but previous experience tells us that staying the course during times of heightened global risks, generally, is the right strategy."
     
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Bullish, neutral, and bearish market cases for Iran conflict: At this point, considering the various scenarios about how the current situation could evolve is the best approach, said Chris Ferrarone, head of equity research and strategy at SCFR. 

  • Under the neutral case of de-escalation and a stable Strait of Hormuz, oil prices are expected to trade in a range around pre-crisis prices, providing a neutral backdrop for global equities and credit markets in this scenario, episodes of volatility are likely to persist as deescalation plays out, Ferrarone said.
  • In adverse scenarios involving supply outages or an extended closure of the strait, oil prices could spike well above $100, leading to stagflation risks and heightened financial volatility, Ferrarone said. However, high spare capacity and diversified global supply could reduce the likelihood of catastrophic outcomes, he said.
  • A rapid resolution accompanied by a regime collapse in Iran could be a bullish surprise for risk assets—though regime change at this point seems a complicated and uncertain process, he said. In that optimistic scenario, the removal of the geopolitical risk premium could push oil prices lower than their pre-attack price below the prior baseline—and spur rallies in equities, particularly in Asia Pacific and Europe. Safe haven assets would likely decline, and central banks could accelerate rate cuts as energy prices fall, Ferrarone said.
  • In the short term, uncertainty is likely to prevail, and investors are likely to react by preparing for an adverse scenario. "Don’t overreact to the news," said Kathy Jones, chief fixed income strategist at SCFR. "A diversified portfolio should be able to withstand volatility in the short term. If investors are not well diversified, it might be time to look at portfolio allocations. But it probably isn't a good time to swing for the fences, given the wide range of potential outcomes. The past isn't necessarily a perfect guide to the future, but previous experience tells us that staying the course during times of heightened global risks, generally, is the right strategy."
     

War debate in D.C.: Lawmakers on both sides of the aisle have questions about the Trump administration's plans for the Iran conflict, especially who's going to govern the country after fighting ends. The latest Schwab Washington: What to Watch Now analyzes this and other developments, including the latest on tariffs.

Answering your questions: Schwab Chief Investment Strategist Liz Ann Sonders sat down to answer questions directly from clients about the state of the economy, inflation, and the discussion about the debasement trade for the dollar in the latest installment of Schwab's series, Comment Below.

Right on target? Target date funds are designed to automatically adjust asset allocation over a predetermined number of years. Our latest explainer gets into advantages, risks, and specifications of this type of mutual fund. 

A taxing challenge: If your employer offers a qualified employee stock purchase plan, or ESPP, that's an added perk to your compensation package. What isn't so fun, however, is navigating tax challenges that may result. Our detailed guide walks through common questions and scenarios.  

The financial journey from military to civilian: A career change is tough for anyone, but can present unique challenges for those entering civilian life after the military. In our latest Q&A, Schwab Denver Branch Manager Casey Zeringue discussed the transition.

Resources for volatile markets: Turbulent market conditions can make anyone worried about their portfolio, and Schwab offers several perspectives that provide ideas to keep in mind at such times:

Market Volatility: What to Do During Turbulence
Bear Market: Now What? 
Market Volatility in Retirement: Are You Prepared?
Navigating the Markets: Tariffs and Trade

Chart of the day

The U.S. dollar index traded above its 50-day moving average of 97.91 on Tuesday, closing at 99.06. That's still well below highs above 107 a year ago. A relative strength index shows it has risen from below 30 at the start of the year to above 60.

Data source: ICE. Chart source: thinkorswim® platform.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

For illustrative purposes only.

Three sessions into the war and the dollar is flexing its muscle. Though the U.S. Dollar Index (candlesticks) remains well below year-ago highs of above 107, it managed to close yesterday above its 50-day moving average (blue line) both sessions this week after struggling to climb above that so far this year. The dollar is up sharply from its lows below 96 recorded in January when the "debasement" trade was a popular item as investors sold off U.S. assets. Also, the dollar index's relative strength index (RSI—bottom chart), has hit its highest point since early November, a sign of positive momentum in trading.

The week ahead

Check out the investors' calendar for a summary of the top economic events and earnings reports on tap this week.

March 5: Fourth quarter productivity-preliminary, January factory orders, and expected earnings from Ciena (CIEN), JD.com (JD), Kroger (KR), Costco (COST), and Marvell Technology (MRVL).
March 6: February nonfarm payrolls.
March 9: Expected earnings from Oracle (ORCL), Hewlett-Packard (HPE), and Casey's General Stores (CASY).
March 10: February existing home sales and expected earnings from BioNTech (BNTX).
March 11: February CPI and core CPI and expected earnings from Campbell's (CPB).

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