Stocks Up Early With Yields Down, Oil Above $100

Published as of: March 30, 2026, 9:12 a.m. ET

(Monday market open) Stocks inched up early despite rising oil prices after the weekend brought little progress on Middle East de-escalation and more U.S. troops arrived in the region. There were mixed signals this morning on transit through the strait and the status of peace negotiations, but yields fell as investors appeared more focused on the positive. "The fate of the markets appears to be tied to Iran and the trajectory of oil prices," said Nathan Peterson, director of derivatives research and strategy at the Schwab Center for Financial Research (SCFR). "If there is an agreed upon ceasefire, or a substantial de-escalation, it seems near certain that stocks will rally substantially, especially given their current oversold status."

Data this week builds toward Friday's March nonfarm payrolls report. Along the way, investors receive the February Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, or JOLTS, tomorrow and more job readings Wednesday and Thursday. In a rare twist, nonfarm payrolls data coincides with the stock market's Good Friday closure, though bond trading does occur that day with an early close. Checking today's light calendar, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell speaks at 10:30 a.m. ET in a moderated discussion at Harvard. It's unclear if he'll address monetary policy.

Friday was another dismal day as almost every sector dropped amid oil's rally, wrapping up the fifth losing week in a row. Investors were also spooked Friday as China's commerce ministry started probes into U.S. trade practices that have slowed the flow of Chinese goods into the U.S. The move threatens a tenuous trade truce. The Nasdaq Composite enters this week in correction territory, down 10% from recent highs, while the S&P 500 Index is down almost 9%. Nike (NKE) reports tomorrow afternoon—this week's earnings highlight.

1. End of quarter could exacerbate choppiness: Since it's the last week of the quarter, volatility could be higher than normal the next two days amid "window dressing." That's a term for fund managers shifting positions before the quarter ends to add better-performing names and drop worse ones. With the market performing so poorly over the past few weeks, it's possible some late-quarter short-covering could also emerge, but these aren't normal times, geopolitically. During dramatic events not related to the market itself, it's more difficult to pinpoint things like technical support. The same held true during the first few weeks of the pandemic six years ago, and recent trading saw hedgers overwhelmingly seeking protection from volatility, a bearish stance. Trading volume was on the low side late last week, which can imply weak conviction, meaning last week's losses might not fully reflect broader thinking around the markets.
    
2. Sector check: It's been a bitter March on Wall Street and that shows up in the sector scorecard. All but one of 11 S&P 500 sectors are down over the last month, with cyclicals that thrive in a strong economy among the worst performers. Materials and industrials are two of the four at the bottom, along with communication services after Meta Platforms (META) sank almost 8% last Thursday on a negative jury ruling regarding social media. Energy leads all sectors and is the only one up over the last month, sporting 12% gains, while defensive utilities are a distant second "best" with a 3.9% loss. Tech is in the middle, down more than 6%. For a while, chip stocks stayed above water, but that changed last week with a dramatic drop on the memory side amid growing product shortage and fresh AI competition concerns. The PHLX Semiconductor Index (SOX) closed below its 100-day moving average Friday for the first time since last spring's tariff "liberation day" selloff. And with earnings approaching, bank stocks are under pressure from a flattening yield curve that makes borrowing and lending less profitable.
    
3. Greenback holding up: The dollar index topped 100 again early today, near recent highs. "The dollar's actually held pretty steady," said Collin Martin, head of fixed income research and strategy at SCFR, in Friday's Schwab OnInvesting podcast. "I think there's a few reasons for that. One is the rise in yields we've seen. If yields rise or interest rate differentials come in a little bit, investors globally might see more value in U.S.-dollar securities." Investors also might be flocking to the dollar as a safe haven. "If we see growth prospects fluctuating, the U.S. might be positioned a little bit better right now than, say, Europe, given the rise in energy prices and how that flows through to the economy," Martin added. "But we haven't seen the huge moves in the dollar that we've seen in U.S. Treasuries." One thing looking shakier, however, is credit spreads, which have begun widening amid concerns about the war. High-yield spreads, in particular, are up, a sign of how riskier investments can be affected by world events.

• CrowdStrike (CRWD) climbed nearly 3% early today after shares got an upgrade from Wolfe Research to outperform from peer perform. The firm says Anthropic's coming model release could drive more vendor consolidation and tailwinds for CrowdStrike. Cybersecurity rival Palo Alto Networks (PANW) also was up more than 3% this morning.
   
• Cryptocurrency stocks generally moved higher this morning, including almost a 3% rise for Circle Internet Group (CRCL), as bitcoin futures (/BTC) began the week with gains. Bitcoin fell 6% last week, and is sometimes seen as a barometer for market risk sentiment.
   
• Sysco (SYY) fell nearly 6% early after the food service giant announced it would buy privately held Jetro Restaurant Depot in a $29 billion deal.
   
• Alcoa (AA) popped nearly 11% today on a spike in aluminum prices reflecting Middle East infrastructure damage, CNBC reported.
   
• Avis (CAR) fell 7% after entering into an equity distribution agreement to offer more shares.
   
• In individual trading Friday, many discretionary stocks fell sharply, as often seen since the war began. The S&P 500 Index is down around 7% year-to-date, the 14th-worst start to a year in history.
   
• The Treasury market saw several key levels tested in Friday's trading, including 4% for the 2-year note, 4.5% for the 10-year note, and 5% on the 30-year bond. These remain key psychological points to watch this week and could lead to more negative sentiment in equities if they're eclipsed. Yields ticked lower across the board early today on hopes for progress toward de-escalation.
   
• The S&P 500 Equal Weight Index (SPXEW)—which had been holding up relatively well this year versus the market capitalization-weighted S&P 500 Index—fell below its 200-day moving average Friday and is now down 2.4% for the year. That's still better than the nearly 7% year-to-date drop for the S&P 500 Index, which more clearly reflects the poor performance of heavily weighted mega caps.
   
• From a technical standpoint, the S&P 500 Index avoided slipping into correction territory last week. A drop below 6,300 would put it into the range of a 10% decline that marks a correction. "Technically, we are near-term oversold, but there has also been some technical damage as several key support levels were violated last week," said my colleague Peterson in his Weekly Trader's Outlook.
   
• The Cboe Volatility Index, or VIX, topped 31 on Friday and is near its highs for the month. Investors are paying up for hedges with a strong bias toward puts. VIX eased slightly early today but remains above 30. The historic average is near 20.
   
• Market breadth—a traditional sign of market health—has collapsed. Less than 20% of S&P 500 stocks now trade above their 50-day moving averages. The percentage topped 70 back in January.
   
• All Magnificent Seven stocks are down significantly so far this year, with Microsoft (MSFT) down the most (-26%) and Apple (AAPL) down the least (-8%). This is a much worse performance than the average S&P 500 stock, which is down 1% year-to-date.
   
• Gold (/GC) popped 1.4% this morning, possibly influenced by hopes for de-escalation in the Middle East.
   
• Last week, the DJIA fell 0.9%, the S&P 500 shed 2.12%, and the Nasdaq Composite slipped 3.23%.

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Last year's post-tariff S&P 500 (SPX—candlesticks) selloff lasted 34 days. The current one is already 42 days old, but the percentage decline so far is less than half of last year's. However, volatility (VIX—purple line) spiked much higher then. This has been more of a slow, steady bleed lower, and that's proven frustrating for participants after last year's V-shaped move.