Looking to the Futures

December lean hog futures (/HEZ26) continue to fall further, hitting a low of 58.225 cents per pound midday on Wednesday the 28th. Lean hog futures have not hit this level since September of 2020. 

Hog futures are typically affected by seasonality to some extent. Supply is typically increased at the end of the year as animals born around the mid-June-August farrowing period reach market weight in early winter.  However, headwinds may be stronger this year, as persistent cash-market weakness and sluggish wholesale pork demand increase pressure on December futures.

The USDA's Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook for October of 2026 shows Pork production in 2026 is forecast at 27.6 billion pounds, up 0.2 percent over 2025, and production in 2027 is expected to be 27.8 billion pounds, up 0.7 percent higher than the forecast for 2026. Through 2027, the United States will contend with sluggish growth in demand for imported U.S. pork by Mexico, slowing the expected growth rate of total U.S pork exports.

Mexico remains the largest purchaser of U.S. exports, accounting for 38 percent of shipments by year-to-date volume through August 2026. This year growth of U.S exports to Mexico has been slower than in the past, due to increased competition from Canada and Brazil. 

U.S. pork exports totaled about 516 million pounds in August, nearly 5 percent below August 2025. Shipments to Mexico fell by 11 percent as they received 200 million pounds of that total, down from 225 million a year earlier. 

Wholesale pork prices remained under pressure Tuesday, with the USDA pork cutout falling $0.71 to $73.09/cwt. Pork bellies led the decline, falling $3.19 to $76.42, while loins dropped $2.28 and butts fell $1.75. Strength in picnics, ribs and hams partially offset those losses. The weakness in the cutout, particularly bellies, adds to the challenging backdrop for lean-hog futures.
 

Light Sweet Crude Oil futures (/CL) have traded in a wide range since June 30, moving between 67.04 and 93.50. Prices have since pulled back and are trading below the 9-day, 50-day, and 100-day simple moving averages (SMA), while remaining above the 200-day (SMA), which recently acted as support after crude briefly moved below it and reached a low of 67.04 on July 2. From a short-term trend perspective, the 9-day (SMA) crossed above the 50-day simple moving average on July 27, which may be viewed as a bullish technical development. However, the 20-day simple moving average and 21-day exponential moving average remain below the 50-day (SMA), suggesting the broader technical picture remains mixed. Volatility has eased from mid-month levels, falling from a high near 175% to roughly 69%. Momentum has also cooled, with the relative strength index declining from near 70 to 52.6. With the RSI only slightly above 50, momentum appears more neutral and may suggest crude is beginning to stabilize.

New futures products are available to trade with a futures-approved account on all thinkorswim platforms: 

• Ripple (/XRP)
• Micro Ripple (/MXP)
• 100 OZ Silver (/SIC)
• 1 OZ Gold (/1OZ)
• Solana (/SOL)
• Micro Solana (/MSL)

Visit the Schwab.com Futures Markets page to explore the wide variety of futures contracts available for trading through Charles Schwab Futures and Forex LLC.