Looking to the Futures
Oats Futures stabilize after front-month contracts roll
Silver Futures (/SIZ26) are down over 6 percent Wednesday afternoon as investors shift toward interest-bearing assets amid a stronger U.S. dollar. So far, the U.S. dollar index ($DXY) has hit a high of 102.945 for the day as the index pushed into levels not seen April of 2025. December Silver is now trading around 55.85, a level not seen since July.
Consumer price index (CPI) data released Wednesday morning came in at the high side of the consensus range, at 3.7% year over year, and 0.6 percent month over month. The CME's FedWatch tool now shows a 34.9% chance of raising the target rate to the 400-425 range, up from 22.1% yesterday. However, this has pulled back from a month ago when the probability of a rate hike came in at 43.5%. The next Fed meeting is set for October 28th.
Gold futures have pulled back on the day as well, though not as much. The December contracts are trading at 4123.3, down 1.29%. Silver is often considered to have a higher beta when weighed up against inflation pressures. This is mostly because the demand for silver comes largely from the industrial side as it is used in a wide range of applications from electronics, grid infrastructure, solar panels, and much more. Higher inflation pressure and potential rate hikes from the Fed would drive up the cost of borrowing, and in turn reduce the industrial demand for silver.
Platinum futures (/PLF27) are trading down 3.75% on the day at 1608.5, bringing the precious metal down to its 3-month low. Palladium futures (/PAZ26) are feeling the effects as well, down 2.74% at 1096.5, the lowest since August of 2025.
Light Sweet Crude Oil futures (/CL) have traded in a wide range since June 30, moving between 67.04 and 93.50. Prices have since pulled back and are trading below the 9-day, 50-day, and 100-day simple moving averages (SMA), while remaining above the 200-day (SMA), which recently acted as support after crude briefly moved below it and reached a low of 67.04 on July 2. From a short-term trend perspective, the 9-day (SMA) crossed above the 50-day simple moving average on July 27, which may be viewed as a bullish technical development. However, the 20-day simple moving average and 21-day exponential moving average remain below the 50-day (SMA), suggesting the broader technical picture remains mixed. Volatility has eased from mid-month levels, falling from a high near 175% to roughly 69%. Momentum has also cooled, with the relative strength index declining from near 70 to 52.6. With the RSI only slightly above 50, momentum appears more neutral and may suggest crude is beginning to stabilize.
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