Looking to the Futures
Oats Futures stabilize after front-month contracts roll
Treasury futures are trading up Thursday afternoon following the Federal Reserve’s decision to raise the target interest rate to the 375-400 range. The Ultra 10-year U.S. Treasury Note Futures are trading up .41% at 107’260. The Federal Open Market Committee voted 12-0 for the 25-basis point increase, the first major policy move under the new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh.
Inflation concerns remain the major topic driving the rate hike. The Federal Reserve issued a brief FOMC statement saying “Economic activity is expanding at a solid pace. Productivity growth is strong, and capital investment is robust. Job gains have kept pace with the workforce, and the unemployment rate has changed little.” While continuing to add, “Inflation remains elevated. Today's policy action will support a timelier return to the Committee's 2 percent goal. The Committee will deliver price stability”
The next Federal Reserve meeting is scheduled for October 28th and currently shows a 50.9% chance to rise into the 400-425 range, confirming the markets signal to raise rates once more this year.
U.S. initial jobless claims unexpectedly dropped to 196,000 for the week ending September 12th, decreasing by 10,000. Analysts’ expectation we’re in the 207,000 – 208,000 range. The four-week moving average slipped by 2,750 to 203,250.
Crude oil futures remain relatively flat this afternoon, with October crude oil futures trading at 101.90, down just .53 on the day. This comes after the Trump administration released a statement saying the damaged Saudi pipeline will restart operations in just days. However independent analysists say the pipeline could remain down for weeks based on satellite images showing significant damage to a pumping station per CNBC.
Light Sweet Crude Oil futures (/CL) have traded in a wide range since June 30, moving between 67.04 and 93.50. Prices have since pulled back and are trading below the 9-day, 50-day, and 100-day simple moving averages (SMA), while remaining above the 200-day (SMA), which recently acted as support after crude briefly moved below it and reached a low of 67.04 on July 2. From a short-term trend perspective, the 9-day (SMA) crossed above the 50-day simple moving average on July 27, which may be viewed as a bullish technical development. However, the 20-day simple moving average and 21-day exponential moving average remain below the 50-day (SMA), suggesting the broader technical picture remains mixed. Volatility has eased from mid-month levels, falling from a high near 175% to roughly 69%. Momentum has also cooled, with the relative strength index declining from near 70 to 52.6. With the RSI only slightly above 50, momentum appears more neutral and may suggest crude is beginning to stabilize.
New Products
New futures products are available to trade with a futures-approved account on all thinkorswim platforms:
- Ripple (/XRP)
- Micro Ripple (/MXP)
- 100 OZ Silver (/SIC)
- 1 OZ Gold (/1OZ)
- Solana (/SOL)
- Micro Solana (/MSL)
Visit the Schwab.com Futures Markets page to explore the wide variety of futures contracts available for trading through Charles Schwab Futures and Forex LLC.