Stocks Dive as Oil Surges, U.S. Loses 92,000 Jobs

Published as of: March 6, 2026, 9:14 a.m. ET

(Friday market open) U.S. jobs growth turned negative in February, plunging 92,000 as unemployment ticked up to 4.4%, the government said. The decline took investors by surprise after a revised gain of 126,000 in January. This follows a historically poor year for the jobs market in 2025, and may raise concerns about economic growth, especially combined with the recent war-fueled surge in crude oil.

Today's data paints a far more unsettled jobs picture, considering consensus was for 60,000 new jobs, with unemployment unchanged at 4.3%. The January report had raised hopes that things were improving. Stocks, already down before the data, extended losses immediately after, and the 10-year Treasury note yield quickly rolled back overnight gains. "This is a weak report, and combined with the war in Iran, it puts the Fed in a tough spot," said Cooper Howard, director of fixed income research and strategy at the Schwab Center for Financial Research (SCFR). "The report could be complicated by weather and strikes in the health care sector, but it's still weak."

On Thursday, major indexes fell but finished well off lows. "The market isn't trading war as much as trading oil," said Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at SCFR. "If crude remains stable, equities likely remain stable; if it spikes toward $100, the macro story changes quickly." Friday's data puts a spotlight on rates as former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan celebrates his 100^th birthday today. Approaching the weekend, stocks seem far from "irrationally exuberant." Crude spiked 6% to new two-year highs near $86 per barrel Friday after Qatar said Gulf oil countries could halt shipments within days, and maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is completely stopped, Bloomberg reported. Also, there are reports that Kuwait has cut oil production. U.S. gasoline prices are up nearly 11% over the last four days, the sharpest surge since 2005, but the S&P 500 Index entered the day down less than 1% from last Friday's close.

1. Deeper dive on payrolls: Today's jobs data could make the Federal Reserve's job harder approaching its meeting at mid-month after it kept rates on pause in January. While the Fed wrestles with higher inflation as crude leaps due to the war, it also has an eye on last year's tepid jobs growth followed by more evidence of labor market weakness in today's data. That makes it unclear if cutting rates to help jobs growth should outweigh keeping rates at current levels to fend off inflation. Though it's too early to say the economy is in a "stagflationary" environment like 45 years ago, that word may be on some lips today. In the immediate aftermath of the report, rate cut odds didn't appear to change much for this month's meeting according to the CME FedWatch Tool, with almost no chance of a move. But chances for a cut by June quickly jumped to nearly 50%, from one in three yesterday. Digging into the report, health care employment fell 28,000 in February as offices of physicians lost 37,000 jobs, likely due to strikes. Information employment also trended lower, and so did federal government employment. Hourly wages rose 0.4% from January and 3.8% year over year, and the average workweek was unchanged from January. December's jobs report was revised into negative territory, meaning combined jobs growth from December and January is now 69,000 fewer than previously reported.
    
2. Things to consider after software's AI-driven dive: Though the general mode lately seems to be shoot first and ask questions later in the AI-battered software sector, investors might consider sorting out winners from losers. For instance, certain software companies might enjoy growing demand from AI agents harnessing their proprietary technology to build data. It's not a one-way street. Furthermore, investors might simply be wrong about AI substitution for software, according to Nvidia (NVDA) CEO Jensen Huang. He believes AI agents will be heavy users of existing software, not a threatening force. Some investors were quick to toss the baby out with the bathwater recently, selling shares despite earnings beats and stronger-than-anticipated revenue forecasts. This appears to be changing, as software charged back this week. The counter argument to industry claims is that AI competition could drag product prices down, hurting margins. AI competition also threatens software firms' moats even if most companies don't get put out of business.
    
3. War's possible impact on rate policy: As central banks including the Fed gather the week after next, Middle East conflict could affect their rate decisions and outlook. "A rapid end to the conflict or even a gradual reduction of hostilities may be enough to avoid sustained impacts to global growth and inflation," Schwab's experts wrote Wednesday. "In these cases, policymakers are likely to remain on the sidelines, waiting to gauge how the conflict plays out and to what degree economic and financial conditions are impacted. The risk of recession increases the longer energy supplies are disrupted, with larger impacts on Europe and Asia-Pacific. If recession risks were to rise meaningfully, policymakers could prioritize the downside risks to economic growth; higher inflation may not last if it ends up destroying economic activity." One advantage the U.S. has now versus during past Middle East conflicts is its own heavy oil production and status as a net exporter. The U.S. also uses far less energy per capita and produces more crude and natural gas than several decades ago. Gasoline use last week averaged under 8.3 million barrels per day, a level it first hit in 1995 when the population was 80 million below today's count.

• Shares of Marvell Technology (MRVL) popped more than 11% after the semiconductor firm topped analysts' earnings and revenue consensus. Its outlook also indicated revenue that topped expectations. Marvell sees revenue up almost 40% ‌to near $15 billion in fiscal 2028. Two analysts upgraded their ratings on the stock.
   
• Nvidia (NVDA) and other chip stocks fell Thursday but pared losses later in the session, after Bloomberg reported that the Trump administration has written draft regulations that would restrict AI chip shipments to anywhere in the world without American approval. Nvidia slid another 1% this morning.
   
• Dow (DOW) climbed 4% in trading ahead of the opening bell following an upgrade to overweight from neutral by JPMorgan Chase. The firm believes polyethylene prices can move "sharply" higher in the near term due to higher energy prices.
   
• Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) rose 2% Thursday after the company announced a share repurchase plan.
   
• Costco (COST) inched lower by less than 0.5%. The company beat analysts' earnings projections and reported revenue in line with expectations.
   
• Gap (GAP) shares plunged more than 8% this morning. The retailer missed consensus on fourth quarter earnings, which the company blamed on store closures caused by U.S. cold and snow in January. Revenue met consensus views.
   
• Samsara (IOT) surged more than 11% in early trading following an earnings beat for the fleet management software firm.
   
• Defense-related stocks slid Thursday despite expectations of climbing weapons demand from the U.S. government.
   
• Airline, delivery, railroad, automobile, and travel-related stocks fell sharply Thursday, and so did some big box stores considered dependent on stable oil prices. Airline shares fell further this morning after crude prices surged again.
   
• Tariff-sensitive discretionary stocks finished second best among all S&P sectors Thursday, and was one of only two in the green along with energy. NBC News reported that a judge from the U.S. Court of International Trade ruled "all importers of record" were entitled to benefit from last month's Supreme Court ruling against a set of President Trump's tariffs. If the ruling stands, it could lead to possible refunds for affected companies.
   
• Most S&P 500 sectors lost ground Thursday, and the pressure wasn't complicated. Rising crude prices reverberate around the entire economy. Even some energy sector stocks struggled, in part because higher oil prices don't help much if a company can't get the oil to market. That's the case now, with traffic into and out of the Persian Gulf at a virtual standstill.
   
• Bitcoin (/BTC), a helpful barometer of investor sentiment and risk appetite, slipped 1.8% this morning but stayed above $70,000. It's up almost 7% since last Friday.
   
• Silver and gold inched up early Friday, but gold is down from a week ago despite the war.

Iran FAQ: Our experts answer some of the most common questions about the Iran war's impact on markets in their latest post. One key takeaway: Investors should avoid over-reacting. Geopolitical shocks and crises rarely result in major sustained impacts to global economic growth or financial markets.

Short snapshot: Using data from the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA) and Schwab.com, we're tracking stocks that have experienced a recent rise in short interest to help short-term traders and long-term investors better gauge market sentiment, monitor positioning trends, and spot potential red flags in specific stocks. Learn more in our new stocks article.

Sector segment: The market is generally divided into 11 sectors, from consumer staples and health care to financials and real estate. But what can investors take from these classifications? The latest educational piece from SCFR breaks it down. 

Bitcoin futures (/BTC—candlesticks) have shown some constructive price action over the past week, illustrated by three bullish green candlesticks and an uptrend in the Relative Strength Indicator (RSI—lower pane), which hit a multi-year low in early February. But the 50-day moving average (red line) lies overhead, as does the average cost (about $84,000) paid by investors in spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), according to data provider Glassnode. Some may look to exit if it hits that level.

Check out the investors' calendar for a summary of the top economic events and earnings reports on tap this week. 

March 9: Expected earnings from Hewlett-Packard (HPE) and Casey's General Stores (CASY).

March 10: February existing home sales and expected earnings from Oracle (ORCL) and BioNTech (BNTX).

March 11: February CPI and core CPI and expected earnings from Campbell's (CPB).

March 12: January factory orders, and expected earnings from Dollar General (DG), Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS), Adobe (ADBE), and Lennar (LEN).

March 13: January PCE, Q4 GDP second estimate, University of Michigan preliminary March Consumer Sentiment, and January Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS).