Stocks Rise Early as Yields, Oil Hold Steady
Published as of: August 21, 2026, 9:05 a.m. ET
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| The markets | Last price | Change | % change |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500® Index | 7,641.16 | -66.82 | -0.87% |
| Dow Jones Industrial Average® | 52,759.21 | -703.84 | -1.32% |
| Nasdaq Composite® | 26,067.17 | -263.92 | -1.00% |
| 10-year Treasury yield | 4.69% | Unch | -- |
| U.S. Dollar Index | 98.74 | -0.15 | -0.16% |
| Cboe Volatility Index® | 15.42 | -0.59 | -3.69% |
| WTI Crude Oil | $86.91 | +0.08 | +0.09% |
| Bitcoin | $77,490 | +$4,700 | +6.46% |
(Friday market open) Stocks rose in early trading as Treasury yields stabilized near long-term highs and oil was little changed, but major indexes were poised to register weekly declines for the first time since late July.
Despite the calendar turning to late August and earnings season winding down, next week looks to be eventful, at least on the economic and policy fronts. Wednesday brings the July Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index and Nvidia (NVDA) earnings. The Federal Reserve's annual Jackson Hole symposium kicks off Thursday, with a speech from Chair Kevin Warsh slated for Friday.
Stocks slumped Thursday as Treasury yields and oil prices rose again. Yields retraced almost all of Wednesday's drop, despite Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent saying he had a "big toolkit" to drag yields lower. "Bessent's 'buyback put' is fading fast," said Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at the Schwab Center for Financial Research (SCFR).
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Three things to watch
- Treasury's efforts on yields raise questions for Warsh: The Trump administration appears to have a pain threshold when it comes to high yields at the long end of the curve, given risks to the economy, said Collin Martin, head of fixed-income research and strategy at SCFR. The Treasury Department made that clear Wednesday when it said it would expand bond buybacks to lower yields, and again Thursday when Bessent said he could further expand the buybacks, if necessary, after yields rebounded to near previous long-term highs. But that doesn't exactly dovetail with what the Federal Reserve is doing. Warsh has said that, to some degree, higher bond yields are doing the Fed's inflation-fighting job for it. The bottom line is that buybacks won't solve the deep-rooted issues, including U.S. government debt, that are pushing yields higher, Martin said. Over the longer term, the Fed and Treasury will need to address their policy challenges head-on or risk losing credibility, he said. Meanwhile, during his speech in Jackson Hole, Warsh may feel the need to address how Fed and Treasury policies might be working together or against each other, and what that might look like going forward, Martin said.
- Philly Fed survey reveals upbeat sentiment, outlook among manufacturers: The Philadelphia Federal Reserve's Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey for August, released Thursday, offered a bullish snapshot of the region's manufacturing sector. The headline figure surged to 47.4, the highest reading since April 2021 and well above expectations. That means the share of respondents reporting an increase in general business activity exceeded the share that reported a deterioration by 47.4 percentage points. That followed a reading of 41.4 a month earlier, and analysts had expected a drop into the 20s. Though new orders and shipments declined, they remained elevated. Meanwhile, the six-month outlook was the brightest in decades, with the gauge of future activity rising to 73.6, the highest since August 1983. The employment index jumped to the highest level since April 2022. Nearly a third of companies reported adding workers, compared with only 5% that reported reducing their workforce.
- AI consumes more Fed attention as impact and potential risks grow: The topic of AI appeared in minutes from the past two Federal Reserve policy meetings more frequently than in all of 2025 combined, with the discussions evolving during that time along with AI's growing impact on financial markets, the economy, and inflation. Earlier in 2025, AI-related comments focused on possible productivity gains and profit margins, with layoffs and weaker hiring noted as potential downsides. Lately, discussions have focused on AI's impact on business investment, economic growth, and inflation, as well as rising debt to finance the infrastructure. On inflation, some saw the impact of AI as limited to certain categories so far, while others see it as broader due to rising aggregate demand. Another risk: AI not living up to the hype. "Several participants discussed, as a downside risk, the possibility that AI developments could disappoint, leading to a significant repricing of stocks, with consequent negative effects on consumer spending," according to minutes from the July 28-29 Fed meeting.
On the move
- WTI crude oil futures (/CL) were flat in early trading Friday. The price rose more than 2% Thursday, topping $86 a barrel, after the Trump administration said it would focus on applying economic pressure on Iran.
- Gold futures (/GC) rose more than 2% early Friday to a three-month high as the U.S. dollar ($DXY) fell to a three-month low. Gold is poised to record a fifth-straight weekly gain.
- Bitcoin futures (/BTC) were up nearly 6% in early trading Friday, putting them on track for the biggest weekly gain since 2024, after President Trump began pushing for passage of the Clarity Act earlier this week. Short-covering, a weaker dollar, and falling bond yields have helped fuel the rally.
- Shares in crypto-related companies Strategy (MSTR), Coinbase (COIN), and Circle (CRCL) all rose at least 5% in early trading, after recording gains of at least 6% Thursday.
- Ross Stores (ROST) jumped about 8% higher before the opening bell after reporting better-than-expected earnings and third-quarter guidance.
- Broadcom (AVGO) gained more than 1% in pre-market trading after Bloomberg reported the chipmaker planned to raise more than $60 billion in debt for an AI chip financing deal involving Anthropic and others.
- Walmart (WMT) shares tumbled more than 9% Thursday after the retailer reported the weakest quarterly sales growth in more than six years.
- Deere (DE) gained nearly 7% Thursday after reporting its first quarterly profit in three years and raising its full-year forecast, due in part to tariff refunds and an AI-related construction boom.
- Moderna (MRNA) lost more than 23% Thursday, a day after gaining 177% on news about promising results for its potential cancer vaccine.
- Chip stocks outperformed the broader market Thursday. Marvell (MRVL) gained nearly 6%, Micron (MU) jumped nearly 4%, and SanDisk (SNDK) gained 2%.
More insights from Schwab
Inflation, yields, and AI: In the latest episode of On Investing, Schwab's Sonders and Martin examined the recent surge in global bond yields and spoke with former St. Louis Fed President Jim Bullard about inflation, monetary policy, his views on AI's potential impact on productivity, and more.
Chart of the day
Data source: CME Group. Chart source: thinkorswim® platform.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
For illustrative purposes only.
The price of WTI crude oil futures (/CL—candlesticks) rose again Thursday, topping $86 a barrel to hit the highest level in a month. While events in the Middle East represent a wild card, the price has run into an intermediate-term downtrend line (white line) that may offer some resistance.
The week ahead
Check out the investors' calendar for a summary of the top economic events and earnings reports on tap this week.
August 24: No major earnings or data expected.
August 25: August Consumer Confidence, July new home sales, and expected earnings from Bank of Montreal (BMO), Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS), Intuit (INTU), and Zoom (ZM).
August 26: July PCE and core PCE, July personal income and spending, second quarter GDP second estimate, July durable orders, and expected earnings from Nvidia (NVDA), Salesforce (CRM), Williams-Sonoma (WSM), CrowdStrike (CRWD), Synopsys (SNPS), Agilent (A), HP (HPQ), and Okta (OKTA).
August 27: Expected earnings from Royal Bank of Canada (RY), Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD), Dollar General (DG), Dollar Tree (DLTR), Burlington Stores (BURL), Best Buy (BBY), Marvell Technology (MRVL), Autodesk (ADSK), Workday (WDAY), Affirm Holdings (AFRM), and Ulta Beauty (ULTA).
August 28: Final August University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index.