Market Mulls Mega Caps, Digests Fed, Awaits Apple
Published as of: January 29, 2026, 9:15 a.m. ET
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| The markets | Last price | Change | % change |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500® Index | 6,978.03 | -0.57 | -0.01% |
| Dow Jones Industrial Average® | 49,015.60 | +12.19 | +0.02% |
| Nasdaq Composite® | 23,857.45 | +40.35 | +0.17% |
| 10-year Treasury yield | 4.25% | +0.01 | -- |
| U.S. Dollar Index | 96.37 | -0.07 | -0.08% |
| Cboe Volatility Index® | 16.71 | +0.36 | +2.20% |
| WTI Crude Oil | $65.22 | +$2.01 | +3.21% |
| Bitcoin | $87,920 | -$1,160 | -1.32% |
(Thursday market open) Two of the three mega caps that reported late Wednesday impressed investors, enough to give Wall Street a light lift early today. Meta Platforms (META) rolled up 9% gains while Tesla (TSLA) added 2%. Microsoft (MSFT) was the black sheep with losses of almost 7% after cloud growth slowed and spending rose. Apple (AAPL) reports later. Beyond earnings, the dollar continued weakening this morning while metals kept rallying amid geopolitical uncertainty and the growing likelihood of another U.S. government shutdown.
As expected, the Federal Reserve paused rates Wednesday after three consecutive cuts. "The decision to hold steady reflects a lack of reason to cut," said Kathy Jones, chief fixed income strategist at the Schwab Center for Financial Research, or SCFR. "The Fed likely reasons that economic growth is strong at around 3.5% to 4%, there's fiscal stimulus ahead, inflation is closer to 3% than the 2% target, the dollar is softening, financial conditions are very loose, and unemployment is low." Market participants still expect two rate cuts this year, but chances don't rise above 50% for a cut until mid-year, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
Stocks, which rose out of the gate Wednesday to lift the S&P 500 Index briefly above 7,000 for the first time, finished flat. One source of pressure late in the day might have been rising Treasury yields that reflected a more upbeat Fed statement about the economy. In his press conference, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said he expects to make decisions meeting by meeting and cited broad support among policymakers for a pause. Upside risks to inflation and downside risks to employment have both "diminished a bit," Powell added, noting he doesn't believe the Fed's current policy is significantly restrictive with a fed funds target range of 3.5% to 3.75%.
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Three things to watch
- Apple follows pack with Siri, pricing in spotlight: Apple rounds out mega-cap earnings for the moment before Amazon (AMZN) and Alphabet (GOOGL) join the parade next week. Apple shares rallied into this afternoon's report, buffered by hopes of strong holiday sales after the successful roll-out of its iPhone 17. Investors will look for updates on the next iPhone, pricing changes, and any word on Apple's delayed AI initiatives. Apple is under pressure to impress with its Siri AI launch, which it promised sometime this year. That schedule is one metric investors will likely check. Another item to watch is any possible updates on a succession plan for long time CEO Tim Cook. Analysts anticipate quarterly earnings per share of $2.67 and revenue of $138.5 billion, up more than 11% year-over-year.
- Fed upbeat on economy, Powell mum on politics: The Fed's statement accompanying its decision was cheerier than December's, describing expanding economic growth and a stabilizing unemployment rate. "We do think we're well positioned after those three cuts to let the data speak to us," Powell said at his press conference, referring to three rate cuts the Fed delivered last year. However, speaking is something Powell declined to do when asked about the Trump administration's criminal investigation of cost overruns associated with the Fed headquarters renovation and Trump's attempt to fire Fed Gov. Lisa Cook. In his press conference, Powell declined to address questions about his January 11 video response to the announcement of the investigation and wouldn't say if the Fed had responded to subpoenas. He also deflected a question about whether he'd remain as Fed governor after his chairmanship ends in May. "There's a time and place for these questions," Powell said. "It's not something I'm going to get into today." Asked what advice he'd have for the next chairman, he replied, "Don't get pulled into politics."
- Data threatened again by possible shutdown: Senate Democrats are expected to block a six-bill appropriations package passed by the House last week because they want changes to the Department of Homeland Security bill after last weekend's shooting in Minneapolis. But with the House in recess until next Monday, it's impossible for the Senate to make changes and have the House agree to those changes before tomorrow's expiration of government funding. "A partial government shutdown this weekend is a very real possibility," said Michael Townsend, managing director of legislative and regulatory affairs at Schwab. Among other things, a shutdown could once again affect the release of inflation data, jobs reports, and other economic information, as the Bureau of Labor Statistics is one of the agencies dependent on this massive bill passing Congress before Friday's deadline. If data gets delayed, investors might want to again check alternative reports that track the economy. For now, data are still operative, and weekly initial jobless claims of 209,000 roughly matched the Briefing.com consensus and remained historically light.
On the move
- Meta climbed almost 9% early today. It announced earnings per share of $8.88, handily topping Street estimates. Revenue for the Facebook parent's fourth quarter exceeded expectations as well, and the firm's first-quarter revenue outlook was also an upside surprise. Meta said an average of 3.58 billion people were active on its platform daily. Two Wall Street firms raised their price targets on shares after the results.
- Tesla rose 2.3% in early trading after the EV giant reported earnings per share of $0.50, compared to $0.45 expected, and revenue of $24.9 billion, versus the estimated $24.7 billion. This comes despite fourth-quarter vehicle deliveries falling 16% year-over-year. The company also said it entered an agreement to invest $2 billion in Elon Musk's xAI startup. Growing competition in the EV market, particularly from BYD in China, has hampered Tesla's core EV business of late, shifting investor focus to its budding robotaxi and humanoid robotics businesses.
- Microsoft shares slipped nearly 7% early despite results topping analysts' consensus. Earnings per share of $4.14 outpaced the $3.91 FactSet consensus, while $81.27 billion in revenue was almost $1 billion above the average estimate. Microsoft Azure and other cloud services revenue grew 39%, falling short of 40% the prior quarter. Quarterly spending hit a record high, climbing faster than analysts had expected and raising concerns about the path to stronger AI-related profitability, Bloomberg reported. Guidance didn't appear to impress. Several Wall Street firms lowered their price targets.
- ServiceNow (NOW) tumbled 9% despite the software company surpassing analysts' earnings and revenue expectations and offering slightly higher guidance. The company has been spending heavily on AI and security capabilities, CNBC reported, but software as a sub-sector continues to slump on concerns of AI competition and one analyst said quarterly subscription revenue growth wasn't strong enough to end worries. ServiceNow is one of several firms seen as software bellwethers, so it's unsurprising that Adobe (ADBE) and Salesforce (CRM) are also down this morning.
- Another software firm, Germany's SAP (SAP), fell double-digits early today despite better-than-expected earnings. Cloud growth revenue missed expectations, Barron's reported.
- IBM (IBM) soared almost 10% as earnings and revenue topped Wall Street's expectations. Double-digit software performance and infrastructure revenue growth were highlights. The company expects free cash flow to rise by about $1 billion year-over-year.
- Nvidia (NVDA) climbed 1.6% yesterday on news of China allowing firms in the country to purchase Nvidia's H-200 AI chip. And early today, The Information reported that Nvidia, Amazon, and Microsoft expect to invest $60 billion overall in OpenAI.
- Mastercard (MA) rose more than 2% as earnings beat estimates amid strong consumer spending. Visa (V) reports later today. The Fed said yesterday that consumer spending appears resilient.
- Southwest Airlines (LUV) shares surged 5% early today after it forecast solid 2026 profits that topped analysts' expectations. Earnings and revenue last quarter were roughly as expected.
- Whirlpool (WHR) dove 10% in early trading after the company missed analysts' earnings and revenue estimates and guided for softer earnings in fiscal 2026 than analysts had expected. In its press release, Whirlpool referred to a "challenging" 2025.
- Gold (/GC) leaped again this morning to new all-time highs above $5,500 an ounce. Silver (/SI) climbed 4%. The metals rally hasn't slowed all month amid geopolitical instability. Mining shares Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) and Newmont (NEM) both rose in early trading.
- The U.S. dollar index ($DXY) slipped slightly and remains near four-year lows. In an interview with CNBC yesterday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the U.S. supports a strong dollar policy and wouldn't confirm media reports of attempts to help Japan prop up the slumping yen. Fed Chairman Powell declined to answer questions about the dollar yesterday, saying that's in the Treasury's purview.
- Bitcoin (/BTC) fell slightly early today, still standing on the sidelines amid the rally in metals.
More insights from Schwab
Fed decision assessed: In her analysis of the Fed's rate pause decision yesterday, Schwab's Kathy Jones says the Fed is likely to tread cautiously given the economic backdrop. "By our estimates, the fed funds rate is on the low side of where it should be based on the strength of the economy, resilience of inflation, and financial conditions," Jones wrote.
" id="body_disclosure--media_disclosure--174046" >Fed decision assessed: In her analysis of the Fed's rate pause decision yesterday, Schwab's Kathy Jones says the Fed is likely to tread cautiously given the economic backdrop. "By our estimates, the fed funds rate is on the low side of where it should be based on the strength of the economy, resilience of inflation, and financial conditions," Jones wrote.
Drowning out the noise: Investors faced a barrage of headlines early this year, especially from Washington. In the latest episode of Schwab's WashingtonWise podcast, Kasey McCurdy, chief portfolio strategist at Schwab Wealth Advisory, joins host Mike Townsend to share insights on how investors can tune out the noise when making investment decisions.
Chart of the day
Data source: CME Group. Chart source: thinkorswim® platform.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
For illustrative purposes only.
Gold is undergoing the most powerful long-term move in decades. Zooming out—way out—on a monthly chart of gold futures (/GC—candlesticks) and adding a Rate Of Change (ROC) momentum indicator (yellow line, lower pane) set at 24 periods shows that the two-year rise since January 2024 is the strongest since the late 1970s. In early 1980, the ROC hit 293 and gold prices reached a peak that wouldn't be recaptured for nearly 30 years. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
The week ahead
Check out the investors' calendar for a summary of the top economic events and earnings reports on tap this week.
January 30: Expected earnings from Exxon Mobil (XOM), Chevron (CVX), American Express (AXP), and Verizon (VZ).
February 2: December construction spending, January ISM Manufacturing Index and expected earnings from Walt Disney (DIS), IDEXX Laboratories (IDXX), and Palantir (PLTR).
February 3: December job openings and labor turnover survey (JOLTS), and expected earnings from Merck (MRK), PepsiCo (PEP), Pfizer (PFE), Eaton (ETN), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Amgen (AMGN), and Chubb (CB).
February 4: ADP January employment change, December factory orders, January ISM Services PMI®, and expected earnings from Eli Lilly (LLY), AbbVie (ABBV), Novartis (NVS), Novo Nordisk (NVO), Uber Technologies (UBER), Alphabet (GOOGL), Qualcomm (QCOM), and Arm Holdings (ARM).
February 5: Expected earnings from Sony (SONY), ConocoPhillips (COP), Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY), Barrick Mining (B), Amazon (AMZN), and Strategy (MSTR).