Rally Slows, Oil Up After Stocks Post New Highs
Published as of: April 16, 2026, 9:13 a.m. ET
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| The markets | Last price | Change | % change |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500® Index | 7,022.95 | +55.57 | +0.80% |
| Dow Jones Industrial Average® | 48,463.72 | -72.27 | -0.15% |
| Nasdaq Composite® | 24,016.02 | +376.93 | +1.60% |
| 10-year Treasury yield | 4.28% | -- | -- |
| U.S. Dollar Index | 98.17 | -0.12 | -0.12% |
| Cboe Volatility Index® | 18.22 | +0.05 | +0.28% |
| WTI Crude Oil | $91.89 | +0.62 | +0.68% |
| Bitcoin | $74,750 | -$425 | -0.57% |
(Thursday market open) One day after the S&P 500 Index and Nasdaq Composite roared to new all-time highs, investors face earnings from Netflix (NFLX) and await fresh news on peace talks as stocks edged up early. Ideas that the oil price shock might be contained, fresh buying interest in AI infrastructure stocks, and relatively solid economic data—combined with reassuring bank earnings and upbeat war news —helped stocks shake off their March skid.
"As long as US/Iran negotiations are moving in the right direction and U.S. crude stays below $100 per barrel, there could be more upside bias," said Nathan Peterson, director of derivatives research and strategy at the Schwab Center for Financial Research (SCFR). Crude inched up early as the Strait of Hormuz remained virtually shut, but stayed well below recent peaks. Checking data, initial weekly jobless claims totaled 207,000, below the Briefing.com consensus of 215,000 and still historically light.
In trading Wednesday, the rally narrowed even while the S&P 500 Index posted its first-ever close above 7,000. Only four of 11 sectors climbed, led by tech as mega-cap stocks surged. Earlier in the week, gains were broader, and while one day isn't a trend, it may be something to track today. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) earnings reported earlier today might also help set the tone, and while they exceeded expectations, shares fell.
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Three things to watch
- Netflix on deck: Shares of Netflix rallied after the streaming giant failed in its attempt to buy Paramount Skydance (PSKY) earlier this year, and this afternoon's results will be the first earnings since Netflix lost that battle. It had hoped the deal would allow it to expand production capacity, so one question is whether that's still a goal. In its last earnings report, Netflix impressed with subscribership and ad revenue, two metrics to watch. Investors might also want to hear if Netflix has any new acquisition plans, and any updates on its licensing deal with Sony. Pricing is another topic du jour after Netflix raised prices across all its streaming plans late last month. The standard plan rose to $19.99 per month, up $2. Competition is fierce, possibly limiting firms' ability to keep raising prices and forcing them into other earnings growth strategies. (Netflix raised prices twice in the last two years.) Last quarter in its earnings call, Netflix executives said they're focused on growing and strengthening the ad business and increasing variety and quality of viewer content. Also, the company aims to grow its margin every year. After Netflix reports, consider checking shares of streaming competitors, including Walt Disney (DIS), Amazon (AMZN), and others for any reaction.
- Bank results bring relief: Earnings from big banks over the last few days reassured investors that despite the war, the U.S. economy remains on relatively solid footing. Several banks lowered their provisions for loan losses, meaning they see less need for heavy amounts of cash on hand to guard against defaults on loans. Also, wealth management and trading results looked solid in the first quarter, with Morgan Stanley (MS) delivering better than expected trading activity. Bank of America (BAC) said in its release yesterday that it saw "solid consumer spending and stable asset quality." And JPMorgan Chase (JPM) CEO Jamie Dimon also observed consumer resilience and said private credit issues aren't likely to be a systemic event. This could suggest he's less worried about the "cockroaches" he referred to last fall when he warned of possible problems in the credit market. Credit spreads are still relatively tight despite the war and overall market volatility, another sign of possible stability below the economy's surface. Bank earnings can sometimes set the tone for an entire reporting season, as these businesses tend to have a close view of economic activity across many sectors. Nothing any of the big banks' executives said in their earnings calls this week appeared to spark fresh economic worries.
- Recent strength sparks concerns: The stock market appears overbought in the near-term, but that doesn't mean it can't continue to "melt up," my colleague Peterson said. The Relative Strength Index, or RSI, which indicates momentum strength, rose this week to nearly 70 from below 30 at its low last month for the SPX. However, 70 traditionally hints at overbought levels. The narrowing of the rally yesterday is possibly a cautionary sign. The mega-cap-dominated info tech, discretionary, and communications sectors all posted gains of 1% or more, with tech up nearly 2%. Financials also climbed. But industrials and materials fell 1% or more, possibly reflecting economic concerns in areas of the economy closely associated with manufacturing. Also, market breadth—which can help investors gauge market strength—has stalled this week near 50% of S&P 500 stocks trading above their 50-day moving average. That's sharply higher than last month but still below the 60% to 70% frequently seen earlier this year when most sectors charged higher.
Crypto currents
Mixed signals as bitcoin faces resistance: Bitcoin touched the highest level in a month Tuesday, just barely topping $76,000 before pulling back a bit. Market metrics point to easing stress and even early signs of accumulation, though with limited conviction and some defensiveness. Though volumes remain modest, the four-week moving average of net flows to spot exchange-traded products has been positive for seven straight weeks, the longest run since October, according to data from Glassnode. Meanwhile, buying by institutional treasuries has picked up over the past two weeks, though also with modest volumes. And the 30-day net change in open interest in perpetual futures has been trending higher since March—but the funding rate has flipped negative, meaning short sellers are willing to pay a premium to keep their positions open. Short-term holders (under 155 days) may drive price action in the near term. After holding losing positions for weeks or months, they're now selling into strength, looking to get out with small losses or profits. Glassnode data shows they're sitting on average losses of 9.3%, up from 48% as of the first week of February. Any sustained move higher will require absorbing their supply.
On the move
- JB Hunt Transport Services (JBHT) accelerated more than 1% after the trucking company topped analysts' quarterly estimates. The company said high fuel prices have had an impact but sees them as a temporary problem rather than a major issue going forward.
- Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing dropped 2% in early trading despite earnings and revenue surpassing consensus and guidance for the current quarter that also exceeded Wall Street's average estimate. TSM's forecast for higher capital spending might be why shares fell. Separately, the company said it's seen no disruption to operations from the war and solid AI demand.
- Abbott Labs (ABT) sank 4% after its earnings this morning. While the company's quarterly results topped earnings and revenue estimates, its second quarter and full-year guidance came in short of consensus on Wall Street.
- PepsiCo (PEP) added 1% as quarterly results surpassed Wall Street's expectations and the company reaffirmed guidance for the fiscal year. It sees organic revenue growth of 2% to 4%. U.S. food business volume rose for the first time in two years, CNBC noted, after recent price cuts.
- Live Nation Entertainment (LYV) slipped another 1.5% today after a steep 6% drop Wednesday. This came after a jury said the company operated a monopoly in the ticketing market, violating antitrust laws, The New York Times reported. The case was brought by 33 states and Washington, D.C., and Live Naton could be forced to divest and pay damages.
- Caterpillar (CAT) fell 3% yesterday, dragging down the Dow Jones Industrial Average in a session where the S&P 500 Index rose. Worries in the industrial sector, where CAT lives, center around ideas that rates could remain relatively high for longer, Briefing.com said. Companies in the sector rely on customers being able to borrow to buy expensive equipment.
- Tesla (TSLA) climbed more than 7% yesterday and is up again this morning and nearing its 200-day moving average near $398. Yesterday's rally came after CEO Elon Musk posted about progress on the company's A15 chip, which he said is getting closer to production, CNBC reported. Tesla reports earnings next week.
- Chances of a pause at this month's Fed meeting were near 98% early today, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Chances of at least one cut this year are near 35%. "We expect Fed policy to stay on hold for several meetings, with the 10-year Treasury yield likely to remain in the 4% to 4.5% range over the short run," said Collin Martin, head of fixed income research and strategy at SCFR.
More insights from Schwab
Currency debasement—what to know: The concept of currency debasement, when countries wittingly or unwittingly devalue their currencies, is ancient. It's made a comeback in the U.S. recently, and in our latest analysis we explore why this happened and how investors should approach the trend.
Gauging the Fed: Learn more about tools that try to gauge the odds of interest rate changes in our latest trading article. "Keeping a close eye on rate expectations through the FedWatch Tool and other indicators can help individual investors prepare and potentially capitalize on rate movements when they happen," said Collin Martin, head of fixed income research and strategy at the Schwab Center for Financial Research. Speaking of the Fed, Martin's insight into three "Is" impacting the bond market—Iran, inflation, interest rates—shares how expectations for Fed policy (and, in turn, bond performance) have shifted. "If oil prices stay elevated for longer and/or inflation expectations rise, yields may rise above that 4.5% upper threshold," he notes.
Foundational education: It's never too soon to start talking to kids about financial literacy. Our latest financial planning article shares some tips for kicking off the conversations and making the subject engaging.
Chart of the day
Data source: CME Group. Chart source: thinkorswim® platform.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
For illustrative purposes only.
Bitcoin futures (/BTC—candlesticks) touched the highest level in a month this week after working its way above its 50-day moving average (red line) but face resistance just ahead from short-term holders looking to sell at a small loss or profit, according to data provider Glassnode. The distance from the 200-day moving average (green line) shows the currency is still deep in a bear market.
The week ahead
Check out the investors' calendar for a summary of the top economic events and earnings reports on tap this week.
April 17: March housing starts and building permits and expected earnings from Truist Financial (TFC), Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB), and State Street (STT).
April 20: Expected earnings from Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF) and Steel Dynamics (STLD).
April 21: Expected earnings from GE Aerospace (GE), UnitedHealth Group (UNH), RTX (RTX), Danaher (DHR), Northrup Grumman (NOC), 3M (MMM), D.R Horton (DHI), Intuitive Surgical (ISRG), Chubb Limited (CB), Capital One Financial (COF), and United Airlines (UAL).
April 22: Expected earnings from GE Vernova (GEV), Philip Morris (PM), AT&T (T), Boeing (BA), Tesla (TSLA), Lam Research (LRCK), IBM (IBM), Texas Instruments (TXN), ServiceNow (NOW), and CSX (CSX).
April 23: Expected earnings from American Express (AXP), Nextera Energy (NEE), Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO), Honeywell (HON), Union Pacific (UNP), Lockheed Martin (LMT), Blackstone (BX), Comcast (CMCSA), Freeport-McMoRan (FCX), Intel (INTC), Gilead Sciences (GILD), and Newmont (NEM).