Stocks Soar, Oil Plunges as Iran Opens Strait

Published as of: April 17, 2026, 9:19 a.m. ET

(Friday market open) Major indexes built on earlier gains and are on track for their third straight higher week, bolstered by news that Iran has declared the Strait of Hormuz completely open to commercial traffic thanks to a ceasefire between Lebanon and Israel. Crude oil fell almost 10% and President Trump said a peace deal with Iran is "very close."

This has been a flow-driven, headline-sensitive rally—momentum is strong, but watch geopolitics, flows, and consumer data for potential shifts. Short covering started the move, as a key part of the rally has been bearish positions getting squeezed, adding fuel to the upside. Flows have been primarily into financial, discretionary, and tech stocks, all of which were laggards for most of March. War news remains a feature as more talks could take place soon. A nearly 10% drop in Netflix (NFLX) after disappointing guidance is one negative feature in the market today.

On Thursday, major indexes struck new highs once again though gains were light compared with the previous days. The Nasdaq Composite has risen 12 sessions in a row, the longest since 2009. Another rise today would match the 13-day streak of January 1992. Next week features a Senate hearing on the proposed successor for Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. Related to that, investors continue awaiting the Supreme Court's decision on President Trump's threat to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook, a case that appears to have new implications after Trump threatened again to fire Powell.

1. Powell succession back in spotlight: The Senate Banking Committee's confirmation hearing Tuesday for Kevin Warsh, President Trump's nominee to succeed Powell, could provide fireworks. "The timeline is very tight for confirming Warsh before Powell's term as chair ends on May 15," said Michael Townsend, managing director of legislative and regulatory affairs at Schwab. "We still have the issue of Senator Thom Tillis blocking any vote on Warsh until the criminal investigation of Powell is resolved. Tillis is fine with the confirmation hearing taking place, but he won't vote for confirmation until that investigation is over." Powell has said he'll stay on as temporary chairman if there's a delay past May 15. Warsh has backed rate cuts, based in part on what he sees as improving U.S. productivity that could keep inflation checked. Even if Warsh gets confirmed on time, though, he might not get his way. "His ability to force interest rates lower is limited—the FOMC has 12 voting members and right now Warsh does not appear to have many allies," Townsend said, referring to the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee. "There is nowhere near a majority of those members who seem inclined to lower rates anytime soon."
    
2. Mag 7 earnings could be next signal: Mega-cap earnings get underway next Wednesday, when Tesla (TSLA) reports, and gather steam the following week when several trillion-dollar heavyweights open their books. April's rally following a rough March is far from unprecedented, as seasonal sentiment traditionally grows more positive this time of year. Last year, the post-tariff rally that began in mid-April powered through much of the summer. A repeat is never guaranteed, though, and traditionally summer is a quieter time for markets. One advantage stocks may have this time is the recent dip in valuations for the Magnificent Seven, something investors appear to be taking advantage of this week with sharp gains for stocks like Apple, Nvidia, and Microsoft, all of which pulled back earlier this year. That said, the Magnificent Seven have a recent history of performing poorly on Wall Street after earnings. If that's the case again this quarter it could pose more risk to the overall market, since their recent gains have helped propel this sizzling rally.
    
3. Fresh read on rally: The S&P 500 Index is up 11% from recent lows and the Nasdaq Composite is up 16%, and it all happened in a flash. Though investors might welcome the recovery, it's also important to step back and consider next steps, especially considering that the rally seemed somewhat narrow in scope and there's a lot of short-term money in the market. "It took only 11 days to achieve new all-time highs, and there's nothing wrong that that," Schwab Chief Investment Strategist Liz Ann Sonders of the Schwab Center for Financial Research (SCFR) told CNBC late Thursday. "But I think we need to see a little more participation under the surface to feel some comfort that there is something lasting here. There are still a lot of unanswered questions. I think this is an environment where you just want to go back to the disciplines of diversification across and within asset classes." This isn't the time to make big bets, Sonders added, and investors should consider using volatility to their advantage by "maybe kicking up the rebalancing schedule." Rebalancing is designed to keep a portfolio's targeted allocation across various asset classes—and intended level of risk—consistent over time.

• Netflix dropped 9.3% in early trading after beating earnings and revenue expectations but disappointing with second quarter guidance, which fell short of consensus. The streaming giant did reaffirm previous fiscal 2026 guidance but also announced its co-founder and current chairman Reed Hastings plans to step down from its board in June. A weak margin forecast for the second quarter played into the company's weak earnings per share guidance, and investors also appeared disappointed that the firm didn't raise its 2026 outlook.
   
• Apple (AAPL) is up 1.4% this morning on a Reuters report that iPhone shipments in China jumped 20% in the first quarter, outperforming peers despite a 4% overall market decline driven by higher chip costs and supply chain disruptions. Apple reports the week after next, and was upgraded to outperform from neutral today by BNP Paribas Exane.
   
• Oracle (ORCL) climbed another 2.75% early today and is up around 30% this week as software names continued to enjoy fresh buying following their poor performance in the first quarter. There may be some rotation going on within tech, as memory chip names Micron (MU) and Western Digital (WDC), which were roaring earlier this week, stalled a bit in the last few days, albeit near recent highs. Salesforce (CRM) and Adobe (ADBE), two other large software names, are also higher today.
   
• U.S. Rare Earth (USAR) rolled up 5% gains this morning, though news was scarce. Shares remain well below their highs from earlier this year but have climbed over the last two weeks, possibly on improved sentiment around the EV market as crude supplies get squeezed.
   
• Tesla (TSLA) rose 2% and is on pace to break an eight-week losing streak, helped partly by hopes for growing EV demand.
   
• Airline and cruise stocks rose this morning, led by 6% gains for Delta Air Lines (DAL), as oil prices fell. Energy stocks lost ground.
   
• Breadth, which narrowed Wednesday when only four S&P 500 sectors climbed, widened Thursday despite smaller overall gains. Seven of 11 sectors rose, led by energy as oil roared back. Info tech posted another positive day of nearly 0.8% gains, but discretionary reversed from Thursday on oil concerns, and industrials continued to sag.
   
• Chances of a pause at this month's Fed meeting were near 100% early today, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Chances of at least one cut this year are near 35%. Futures trading bakes in almost no chance of a hike.

SEC approves easing day trader requirements: Traders will face a lower barrier to day trading stocks and options after the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approved proposed new rules earlier this week. Under the new rules proposed by the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA), traders will no longer be required to maintain a minimum account balance of $25,000 to engage in frequent margin day trading.

Popular options strategy explained: Selling a covered call can help traders potentially make money if the underlying stock price holds steady. Our latest options trading article explains considerations traders need to understand before using this strategy.

This year-to-date chart appears to show more concerns about inflation in the market. The 10-year Treasury note yield (TNX:CGI—purple line) climbed back above 4.3% yesterday and the dollar index ($DXY—candlesticks) fell to its lowest level in a month, around 98.20. Yields climbed in part on solid U.S. data and rising oil, while the dollar edged lower on hopes for a ceasefire extension that has eased interest in the dollar as a "safe haven." Things could turn quickly for the dollar if fighting resumes, but that might also send yields even higher.

Check out the investors' calendar for a summary of the top economic events and earnings reports on tap this week.

April 20: Expected earnings from Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF) and Steel Dynamics (STLD).

April 21: Expected earnings from GE Aerospace (GE), UnitedHealth Group (UNH), RTX (RTX), Danaher (DHR), Northrup Grumman (NOC), 3M (MMM), D.R Horton (DHI), Intuitive Surgical (ISRG), Chubb Limited (CB), Capital One Financial (COF), and United Airlines (UAL).

April 22: Expected earnings from GE Vernova (GEV), Philip Morris (PM), AT&T (T), Boeing (BA), Tesla (TSLA), Lam Research (LRCK), IBM (IBM), Texas Instruments (TXN), ServiceNow (NOW), and CSX (CSX).

April 23: Expected earnings from American Express (AXP), Nextera Energy (NEE), Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO), Honeywell (HON), Union Pacific (UNP), Lockheed Martin (LMT), Blackstone (BX), Comcast (CMCSA), Freeport-McMoRan (FCX), Intel (INTC), Gilead Sciences (GILD), and Newmont (NEM).

April 24: Final April University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment.