Here is Schwab's early look at the markets for Wednesday, October 28.
Typically, a rate decision by the Federal Reserve is the top news item of the day when it happens. That's not really the case today, with no rate hike or forward guidance expected and a Magnificent Seven duo reporting after the close.
Microsoft and Alphabet—two of the three largest cloud companies—report this afternoon. The largest cloud firm, Amazon—which also sells books and groceries—reports tomorrow following the closing bell.
Between these three, investors will get a picture of AI spending plans and updates on whether heavy spending by these "hyperscalers" continued to translate into growth of their businesses. The second quarter showed evidence of that, and Microsoft is up solidly since then. Alphabet is not.
Chances of a hike when the Fed meeting ends at 2 p.m. ET today are minimal, at 7%, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. This comes after Fed policymakers generally hinted earlier this month that although inflation remains high, there's no urgency to deliver another rate hike after they did so unanimously in September.
Another hike might well be on the way at the December meeting, futures trading indicates, and Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh will likely be asked for his latest thoughts on inflation and the economy at his post-meeting press conference today.
Warsh was a man of few words at the last Fed press conference, closing down questions after half an hour. He's likely to remain that way today, as he's said he doesn't want to make predictions. One item to track is the vote by policymakers, unanimous in favor of a hike last month. If there's a divide and some policymakers want to hike now, that could provide hints about the December meeting.
Heading into earnings from the big-three cloud giants, tech has been on a rebound this week thanks to improved sentiment around AI demand. In the latest positive news, Nvidia yesterday announced a $3 billion investment in Meta Platforms' $97.5 billion equity offering.
Some numbers to watch this afternoon include Microsoft's Azure cloud growth after it forecast a 45% annual rise, and Alphabet's year-over-year cloud growth, which was 82% last time. Some analysts expect 90% or more in today's report. Capital expenditure estimates for 2027 also loom large for Alphabet, which has had its shares punished for lofty spending that could be as high as $205 billion this year.
Today also brings Oracle Investor Day, putting its AI spending into the spotlight. Worries about heavy debt-related AI spending have dogged shares for a year now, with shares losing more than half their value since then. Investors might want to keep ears open for Oracle's thoughts on the state of AI demand and how much spending it plans.
Another question is whether Oracle can afford the spending analysts think it needs as it relies on increasingly expensive financing for its debt. Oracle is also heavily dependent on OpenAI, Barron's reported, raising questions about whether OpenAI can generate enough revenue to meet its commitments to Oracle.
Turning to data, key reports arrive tomorrow morning when the government delivers its first estimate of third quarter gross domestic product (GDP) growth and the September Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, the Fed's favored inflation meter.
Analysts expect monthly headline PCE of 0.5% and core PCE, excluding food and energy, at 0.3%, up from 0.3% and 0.2% in August, respectively.
On an annual basis, consensus is for 3.6% growth in headline PCE and 3.1% in core, compared with 3.4% and 3.3%, respectively, in August.
In data yesterday, September new home sales fell 0.6% from August to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 676,000, still well above – consensus of 655,000. September durable goods excluding transportation rose 0.5%, up from 0.3% in August but below the 0.6% Briefing.com consensus. Overall durable orders rose a solid 1.8%, well above consensus of 1%.
Consumer confidence, which was historically weak in September, came in surprisingly strong at 91.7 for October, well above the 80.5 Briefing.com consensus. The 12-month inflation expectation fell to 5.8% from the previous 6%.
Looking to GDP, analysts expect a seasonally adjusted annual rise of 3%, up from 2.2% in the second quarter, according to Briefing.com. That's a solid number, and anything above that has a chance of pushing Treasury yields higher.
The benchmark 10-year yield is down about 35 basis points from recent highs as Fed rate hike odds fell over the last two weeks. But solid economic data tends to support higher yields, as it may increase inflation worries.
Another force in Treasuries is regular auctions by the government. Yesterday's $70 billion auction of 5-year notes met weak demand, Briefing.com said, following soft interest in a 2-year auction Monday. A 7-year note auction follows on Thursday. Short-dated Treasuries more sensitive to Fed rate policy did worse than longer-term notes after better-than-expected new home sales and consumer confidence data.
Major indexes posted solid gains a second straight session Tuesday as risk-on trading returned and investors flocked to growth sectors including tech and consumer discretionary. Steady Treasury yields and lower oil prices on hopes of fresh progress toward Middle East diplomacy also helped stocks.
Seven of 11 S&P 500 sectors finished flat to higher Tuesday, the second straight day of solid breadth. Cyclical and defensive sectors were in that mix. Energy fell 2%, a rare last-place finish, as crude fell below $100 per barrel.
Tech appeared to draw support from an Nvidia commitment to invest in Meta shares as Meta raises money to support its AI infrastructure build-out. Advanced Micro Devices also announced a commitment for buying Meta shares, CNBC reported.
Checking Tuesday's individual movers, chip and AI-related firms generally did well as investors appeared willing to shift money into the sector that's been in a long correction. Applied Digital, a data center firm, rose 9%. Memory firms like Western Digital and Sandisk climbed, while the PHLX Semiconductor Index (SOX) rose 3.6%.
CoreWeave rebounded 8% and Nebius rose 11%, bouncing back despite recent worries about their ability to access capital. The gains for these "neocloud" firms came after CoreWeave announced an expansion of its global AI platform.
Big chipmakers Advanced Micro Devices and Intel climbed 5% and 3.6%, respectively, ahead of mega-cap earnings, which could hint at continued strong "hyperscaler" demand to support cloud business growth. Market leader Nvidia continued to lag well behind, rising just 1%.
Other companies with AI exposure were also among Tuesday's leaders, including Dell, Super Micro Computer, Nucor, and GE Vernova.
General Motors rose more than 5% on hopes for a U.S. trade deal with Mexico and on news it plans to list on the Nasdaq starting November 17.
Royal Caribbean cruised to 5% gains after surpassing earnings estimates. Revenue climbed 9%. The strong showing lifted other travel-related stocks including rival Norwegian Cruise Line. Airlines like United and Delta also had strong days.
JetBlue surged 19% as the company projected fourth quarter margin expansion, CNBC reported.
Boeing plunged 10.7% after suffering a wider-than-expected quarterly loss despite better-than-expected revenue. Commercial revenue fell year-over-year. Space, defense, and security performed well but Boeing continues to spend heavily on new airplane production, hurting profits.
Broadcom rose 4% after an upgrade to buy from neutral at D.A. Davidson.
Nucor rose 6% on strong earnings as the company reported "booming" steel demand.
United Parcel Service climbed 5.8% after the delivery firm beat estimates and raised its forecast. The company's margins have improved thanks in part to focusing on higher-margin shipments and scaling back deliveries of packages for Amazon, Reuters reported.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average® ($DJI) climbed 15.99 points (+0.03%) Tuesday to 52,377.57; the S&P 500 Index ($SPX) added 45.83 points (+0.60%) to 7,722.60, and the Nasdaq Composite® ($COMP) gained 308.43 points (+1.18%) to 26,477.81.