The MOVE Index and Why It Might Matter

With data, earnings, and central bank news to track, it can be easy to lose sight of volatility. Investors who keep tabs on volatility often turn to the Cboe Volatility Index^® (VIX^®), which tracks stock market uncertainty and can sometimes hint when the S&P 500^® Index (SPX) might be on the cusp of a dramatic move.

While the VIX can potentially signal stock market shifts—especially downward ones—the ICE BofA U.S. Bond Market Option Volatility Estimate Index, commonly known as the MOVE Index (MOVE:GIF), tracks volatility in Treasuries to provide insight into the fixed income market. Fixed income is the second-largest market in the world behind currencies, and sometimes the MOVE can even outpace the VIX as a red flag.

In March 2026, for instance, the MOVE surged soon after the Iran conflict began. The MOVE's rise to 115 coincided with a jump in Treasury yields and an eventual ascent in equity volatility that sent the VIX above 30 from below 15 earlier in the year.

Similarly, in March 2023 when banking industry troubles percolated, the MOVE Index began climbing several days before the VIX began moving higher. Not long after that, U.S. stocks posted steep losses as the VIX surged, but investors who'd watched the MOVE Index might've had an earlier inkling that something was wrong.

The MOVE also flagged changing conditions ahead of the VIX in early 2022 when the Federal Reserve began signaling it would abandon its pandemic-era zero-interest-rate policy. Increased volatility often leads to downward moves on Wall Street, which can cause some traders to consider pulling back on equity exposure.

"If there's a lot of uncertainty in fixed income, it tends to bleed into the equity market too," said Joe Mazzola, head trading and derivatives strategist at Schwab. "A high MOVE Index signifies increased volatility in the Treasury market and possible heightened market uncertainty and risk."

The MOVE Index uses an options-pricing model based on a weighted average of option probabilities to reflect collective expectations for future volatility in the fixed income market.

Specifically, the MOVE measures the implied yield volatility of a basket of one-month, over-the-counter options on 2-year, 5-year, 10-year, and 30-year Treasuries. It's sometimes called the "VIX for bonds," according to the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE).

By late summer 2026, the MOVE was rising steadily while the VIX was falling, indicating bonds might be pricing in more volatility soon even as the equity market priced in comparatively little. This could reflect inflation fears and concerns that Japan (the largest foreign holder of U.S. debt) might begin selling Treasuries to help buy back yen and stabilize its own currency. That would push up yields as a supply glut of Treasuries hits the market.

To track the MOVE Index on Schwab's thinkorswim^® platform, type in the symbol MOVE:GIF. It's updated at the end of each trading day. The index has traded in a wide range recently, from around 55 in late 2025 to 115 in early 2026 when the Iran war began and oil prices surged.

Despite the mid-2026 rally in rates that pushed 10-year yields to their highest level since January 2025 by late August, the MOVE Index remained relatively contained. Yes, there has been an uptick in the trend of late with higher lows in the MOVE price and Relative Strength Index (RSI—middle chart), but the Average Directional Index (ADX—bottom chart) at 13 showed a weak trend at best. In the MOVE chart below, the blue line is the 20-day moving average and the red line is the 50-day moving average.

There have been many periods when the MOVE didn't live up to its name and stayed static. Still, several of these inert moments proved to be useful for traders trying to get a sense of bond market volatility.

The long gap between rate hikes from near the end of the Great Recession in 2008 through late 2015 was one time when the MOVE gave investors limited clues into market movements.

That's because Fed policy was so historically dovish that investors simply didn't worry much about interest rates. In short, the MOVE hasn't been particularly helpful when Fed interest rate policy is relatively stable with rates high or low. Range-bound rates tend to keep Treasury market volatility under control, leaving the MOVE relatively steady.

But when rate stability seems likely to change or the market senses other developments that can impact Treasury yields, the MOVE may show signs of increased volatility. This may indicate just how much drama investors might expect in the Treasury market as a rate change era looms. And that often shows up on the MOVE before it does on the VIX.

"The MOVE hasn't always led, but when there are periods of uncertainty or heightened bond volatility, that's when we've noticed it's had a corrective effect on the equity market," Mazzola said.

For instance, the MOVE rose going into October 2023, followed by a pullback in equities.

One way to track the MOVE is to look at it not in isolation but in its relationship to the VIX. When the MOVE/VIX band is highly correlated, the MOVE can provide more clarity into possible stock market direction.

"Once we saw the Fed would raise rates in early 2022, the volatility band between the MOVE and the VIX widened, and the MOVE became a real leading indicator of where volatility might go," Mazzola explained.

Keep in mind, there's often a correlation between fixed income and equity markets, and this is echoed by the level of correlation between the VIX and the MOVE. When Treasury yields rise, that can often, but not always, lead to lower stock market values. The correlation tends to occur when stocks are more sensitive to potentially rising Treasury yields. That was the case, for instance, in early 2022 when the stock market was at record highs following a long stretch of zero interest rates that sent money flooding into Wall Street.

By mid-2024, the MOVE/VIX relationship was less correlated in part because there seemed to be a clearer picture of the rate path ahead and the stock market's moves had begun to uncouple from rate changes. In other words, stocks became less rate sensitive.

"Investors can use the MOVE Index to identify heightened volatility in the bond market and extrapolate whether that will lead into equity market volatility," Mazzola said. "At peak, the correlation with the VIX is 60 to 70. I wouldn't say it's a perfect indicator. But when it maxes to 60 to 70 between the VIX and the MOVE, that tells me it's a decent indicator. Investors can't look at it as a perfect fit. It needs to be seen as a tool in context with what's happening in the broader market as a whole."