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Market Insight

Quarterly Market Outlook: Stay Prepared
by Schwab Center for Financial Research
March 20, 2019

The Schwab Center for Financial Research’s theme for 2019 was “be prepared,” and that still holds true. Here’s what we expect to see for the remainder of the year.

Brexit: What’s Next for Investors
by Jeffrey Kleintop
March 18, 2019

The stock market impact of the U.K. crashing out of the EU with no plan would probably be significantly negative, but if the disorderly “no deal” Brexit scenario is avoided the chances seem to favor a partial rebound in U.K. stocks and the British pound.

Schwab Market Perspective: Sliding into Recession…or Another Q1 Quirk?
by Liz Ann Sonders, Jeffrey Kleintop, Brad Sorensen
March 15, 2019

Recession fears have risen and stocks have become more volatile, but is now the time to prepare for a sharp downturn?

Can’t You Hear Me Knocking: A Contrarian Look at Inflation
by Liz Ann Sonders
March 11, 2019

I’m more intrigued with untold stories than well-told stories; which is why my contrarian side wonders whether there’s too much investor complacency about inflation.

U.S.-China Trade Tensions Have Eased, Will Growth Revive?
by Jeffrey Kleintop
March 04, 2019

This year’s rally in Chinese and EM stocks could become vulnerable in the coming months as optimism over a trade deal leads to disappointment over its actual economic and earnings effect.

Panic Is Not a Strategy—Nor Is Greed
by Liz Ann Sonders
February 26, 2019

Why doing nothing may be the better response to market volatility.

The Beginning is the End is the Beginning: A Look at Recessions
by Liz Ann Sonders
February 25, 2019

Recessions are inevitable; what we don’t know is the length of runway between now and the next one. But we can look at history as a guide.

Diverging Trends: A Look At Earnings Growth Around The World
by Jeffrey Kleintop
February 19, 2019

The divergence in the assessment of the outlook reflected in the stock and bond markets may be decided by the ongoing convergence in earnings growth expectations across regions.

No Quarter: Could 1Q19 Bring Negative Earnings?
by Liz Ann Sonders
February 11, 2019

Although 4Q18 earnings season is capping a very strong calendar year for earnings; the outlook for 2019 is decidedly murkier, with 1Q19 already in negative territory.

Five Stock Market Indicators For 2019 You Should Ignore
by Jeffrey Kleintop
February 04, 2019

As investors ponder what this year may hold in store for the markets, the inter-relationships between politics, economics, fiscal policy, monetary policy, and corporate actions can seem very complex. Investors may feel overwhelmed and seek a simple answer. When people feel there is a situation that is out of their control or is too complicated to analyze, they often fall back on rules of thumb to make decisions.

Two Out of Three Ain’t (Good): Leading Indicators Falter Again
by Liz Ann Sonders
January 28, 2019

The Conference Board’s release of December’s Leading Economic Index was notable for its continued trend deterioration; and the second decline in three months.

Tax War: Will Global Competition to Lower Taxes Lift Growth?
by Jeffrey Kleintop
January 22, 2019

After last year’s U.S. tax cuts contributed to better growth and market performance, a number of major countries are looking to reverse the declines in growth and voter satisfaction with tax cuts in 2019.

Every Rose Has its Thorn: Healthy Rally, but Risks Linger
by Liz Ann Sonders
January 14, 2019

After a near-bear market decline into Christmas last year, U.S. stocks have staged a remarkable record-breaking breadth rally … more to come?

What Could Go Right in 2019?
by Jeffrey Kleintop
January 07, 2019

In recent months, stock market participants have been focusing on downside risks in 2019, but not all risks are to the downside.

Apple’s Sales Warning, Global Slowdown Drive Markets Lower
by Schwab Center for Financial Research
January 03, 2019

Stocks dropped on an earnings warning from Apple and a significant decline in U.S. manufacturing activity. Here’s what investors should know.

2019 U.S. Market Outlook: Ten Years Gone
by Liz Ann Sonders
December 17, 2018

Can the U.S. economy make it to next July, when it would become the longest expansion in the post-WWII era? Let’s take a look.

Market Correction: What Does It Mean?
by Schwab Center for Financial Research
December 14, 2018

What does a market correction mean, what’s likely to happen next and what can investors do now?

2019 Global Market Outlook: Mind The Gap
by Jeffrey Kleintop
December 10, 2018

Global growth is likely to slow in 2019 as the economic cycle nears a peak. International stocks may continue to see heightened volatility and could enter a bear market if key indicators continue on their current path.

2019 Market Outlook: Be Prepared
by Schwab Center for Financial Research
December 10, 2018

Rising rates, declining liquidity and sluggish global growth—with trade conflicts as an additional headwind—may weigh on economic growth and market performance in 2019.

2019 Market Outlook: U.S. Stocks and Economy
by Liz Ann Sonders
December 10, 2018

U.S. economic growth was strong in 2018, but some of the forces behind that strength were either short-term or likely to fade going forward.

2019 Market Outlook: Global Stocks and Economy
by Jeffrey Kleintop
December 10, 2018

Global growth may slow in 2019 as the economic cycle nears a peak, with increasing drag from worsening financial conditions combining with full employment and rising prices.

Stocks Drop on Renewed Trade, Economic Fears
by Schwab Center for Financial Research
December 04, 2018

Stock markets were shaken on Tuesday as doubts grew over the U.S.-China trade truce and the Treasury yield curve flattened sharply. Here’s what investors should know.

Truce: He Said, Xi Said
by Liz Ann Sonders
December 03, 2018

Stocks are applauding the truce which resulted from Presidents Trump and Xi dinner this weekend; but enthusiasm curbing over the next three months may be warranted.

Investors May Get Some Good News For A Change
by Jeffrey Kleintop
November 26, 2018

Ominous signs for the world economy may be causing stocks to price in an imminent global recession. However, these appear to be isolated, short-term events that already show signs of stabilization. Growth may rebound in the near-term and offer some relief for stocks.

Should You Invest In The Only Country Planning Stimulus In 2019?
by Jeffrey Kleintop
November 12, 2018

Economic growth for many of the world’s biggest economies is expected to slow in 2019, yet China appears to be the only one planning on implementing economic stimulus. While a bounce from China’s stimulus is possible, we believe global growth is likely to slow as the economic cycle nears a peak, leaving investors to consider reducing volatility by trimming the more volatile asset classes such as emerging market stocks.

Is It Time to Consider European Equities?
by Jeffrey Kleintop
November 09, 2018

The U.S. stock market’s relentless run-up has left many investors exposed. Now may be the time to allocate elsewhere.

What to Expect in a Bear Market for Global Stocks
by Jeffrey Kleintop
October 29, 2018

Recent stock market behavior and our belief in heightened risk of a peak in the global economic cycle in the next 6-18 months, makes it a good time to consider what has happened to stocks in a typical recession and bear market.

On Watch: Is There More Trouble Ahead for Stocks?
by Jeffrey Kleintop
October 15, 2018

Recent market volatility has made some investors wonder if the economic cycle is ending and stocks are at the start of a prolonged decline. One indicator we are watching for signs of the potential for a recession and a deeper and prolonged decline in stocks is the gap between the unemployment rate and the inflation rate. This indicator suggests that the risks are rising.

What’s In Store For Global Stocks In Q4?
by Jeffrey Kleintop
October 01, 2018

We believe there are three positives, three negatives and three wildcards for stock market performance in the fourth quarter. We expect the balance of these factors to result in further gains for global stocks.

Emerging Market Stocks: What We Are Watching
by Jeffrey Kleintop
September 17, 2018

EM stocks are prone to high volatility, as we have experienced this year. We will be watching the signs closely to see if this is typical volatility or something leading to a deeper and more prolonged downturn.

US Bonds Have an Important Message for International Stocks
by Jeffrey Kleintop
September 04, 2018

The U.S. bond market has been a good indicator of peaks in international stock markets. This is now important since the yield curve in the U.S. has flattened more than in Europe.

Where Will The Next Crisis Come From?
by Jeffrey Kleintop
August 20, 2018

There are some reasons to think that the probability of a repeat of a past crisis has eased. The changes we have seen should help reduce the vulnerability of the global system to shocks like those of the past. Of course, risk has not been entirely eliminated from the system.

What Does GDP Mean For The Stock Market?
by Jeffrey Kleintop
August 06, 2018

What Does GDP Mean For The Stock Market?

Top Five Global Risks for Investors in 2018: Mid-Year Update
by Jeffrey Kleintop
July 23, 2018

Many of our top risks for 2018 have come to pass. Our updated top five global risks for investors in 2018 are: geopolitics, chasing returns, return of inflation, dollar strength, and fading momentum.

Trade Tremors: Measuring The Actual Impact
by Jeffrey Kleintop
July 09, 2018

Trade-war anxieties have been reflected in markets and surveys of both consumers and businesses, but thus far have not appeared in actual “hard” economic data.

2018 Global Mid-Year Outlook: From Sugar High to High Tariffs?
by Jeffrey Kleintop
June 25, 2018

Global economic and earnings growth momentum is slowing, but still growing. How the ongoing trade conflicts develop pose a risk to markets the second half of the year.

Emerging Market Stocks: From Front-Runner To Dark Horse?
by Jeffrey Kleintop
June 11, 2018

Emerging market stocks appear to have gone from front-runner to dark horse in the minds of investors. Fear of a return to an environment that hobbled emerging markets in the past has gripped the market. Yet, the current environment may be most similar to those which generated outperformance by emerging markets in the past.

Market Volatility: Italy Adds to Global Uncertainty
by Schwab Center for Financial Research
May 30, 2018

Uncertainty over Italy’s political future spurred market volatility this week, after Italian President Sergio Mattarella vetoed the selection of an anti-euro finance minister and concern grew that Italy could leave the common currency.

Italian bond yields jumped on Tuesday, with the 10-year Italian government bond exceeding the yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury for the first time in about a year. Meanwhile, U.S. stocks dropped on  Tuesday—with banking stocks taking the brunt of the sell-off, given their exposure to weakening Italian government bonds—but rebounded on Wednesday.

Are Stocks Taking A GAP Year?
by Jeffrey Kleintop
May 29, 2018

It is now graduation time for many high school students. But not all of the new graduates are headed to college right away. Gap years are growing more popular with students taking a year off to mature before taking on the next step in their education.

How To Avoid A Shark Attack
by Jeffrey Kleintop
May 14, 2018

A shark attack could take a big bite out of unprepared investors’ portfolios who don’t rebalance.

Investors’ Guide to Diverging Global Economic Policies
by Jeffrey Kleintop
April 30, 2018

What does the increasingly different policy environments in U.S. and non-U.S. economies mean for stock market investors?

When Will the High Volatility End?
by Jeffrey Kleintop
April 16, 2018

April may bring a halt to the decline in stocks, but heightened volatility may not be going away for a long time.

Trade Fears Continue to Rattle Markets
by Schwab Center for Financial Research
April 06, 2018

An escalation in rhetoric over U.S.-China trade sent stocks back toward correction territory.

From Overheating to Underwhelming: Is the Economy Hurting Stocks?
by Jeffrey Kleintop
April 02, 2018

Economic growth has been an important factor driving the stocks market over the past year. But what if that economic support is now fading?

Stocks’ Sweet Sixteen: Volatility May Reign As Competing Drivers Square Off
by Jeffrey Kleintop
March 19, 2018

As the NCAA basketball tournament gets down to the Sweet Sixteen, it is a good time to reflect on sixteen competing drivers of the markets that may make for an exciting showdown in the weeks and months to come.

Trade War and Peace: Which Markets Are Most At Risk
by Jeffrey Kleintop
March 05, 2018

Global stocks gave up roughly half of their recovery from the February correction last week as President Trump previewed his plan to impose a 25% tariff on steel imports and 10% on aluminum. Not every new tariff constitutes a trade war—metals have often been a target of U.S. tariffs with steel tariffs imposed by each of Trump’s recent predecessors in the White House. Although small in economic impact, these tariffs are symbolically important.

Market Volatility: Stocks Drop on Tariff Fears
by Schwab Center for Financial Research
March 02, 2018

News that the White House was contemplating broad tariffs on steel and aluminum imports rattled the stock market this week. Here’s what investors should know.

Is it Over? Five Misconceptions About Corrections
by Jeffrey Kleintop
February 20, 2018

The worst of the current global stock market correction may be over, but it is unlikely to be the last one this year. Unfortunately, there are a lot of misconceptions about what signals the end of a correction.

Market Volatility: Here’s What You Should Know
by Schwab Center for Financial Research
February 09, 2018

Market volatility can make anyone nervous. Here’s what investors should know about dealing with it.

Stocks Fall: Why Now, What’s Next?
by Jeffrey Kleintop
February 05, 2018

Stocks Fall: Why Now, What’s Next?

Expecting the Unexpected: Is a Demographic Disaster Looming?
by Jeffrey Kleintop
January 22, 2018

Expecting the Unexpected: Is a Demographic Disaster Looming?

Five Global Risks for Investors in 2018
by Jeffrey Kleintop
January 08, 2018

Five global risks for investors in 2018

2018 Global Market Outlook: Three Actions to Take for the Year Ahead
by Jeffrey Kleintop
December 11, 2017

What does 2018 hold for investors in global markets?

Are Stocks too Expensive?
by Jeffrey Kleintop
November 27, 2017

History indicates stocks could have further to run.

5 Reasons Investors Should Give Thanks
by Jeffrey Kleintop
November 13, 2017

Stock market investors have a lot to be thankful for.

Spirit of the Season: Scary Charts for Investors
by Jeffrey Kleintop
October 30, 2017

We still see more treats than tricks for investors in the year ahead. But in the spirit of the season, we are sharing some scary charts of a few things we worry about late at night.

Fires, Hurricanes, and Earthquakes: What Disasters Mean For Markets
by Jeffrey Kleintop
October 16, 2017

2017 is likely to rank as the most costly year ever for natural disasters. From a purely economic perspective—where analysis replaces emotion—disasters tend to spur economic growth over the short and long-term despite the widespread destruction they leave behind.

Inflation May Be The Biggest Question For Investors In 2018
by Jeffrey Kleintop
October 02, 2017

Central banks are behaving as if wages and inflation will revive in the year ahead. If they don’t, and central banks don’t alter their policy path, the global stock markets could be in for a rough 2018.

How the Shift by Central Banks May Affect the Stock Market
by Jeffrey Kleintop
September 18, 2017

Despite the coming shift by central banks towards trimming/tapering their balance sheets, we don’t believe the bull market is at risk.

U.S. vs International: What Do Earnings Tell Us About What May Be Ahead?
by Jeffrey Kleintop
September 05, 2017

Over the past 15 years, earnings per share for both international and U.S. companies went from $33 to $108, but they took very different paths, illustrating the diversification benefits of global investing.

Earnings May Be About to Do Something They’ve Never Done Before
by Jeffrey Kleintop
August 21, 2017

For the world’s stock market to continue to rise, it is our view that after trying and failing three times over the past 10 years earnings per share must push through the ceiling of $30.

What Are Fund Flows Telling Us About Trends and Risks in the Global Stock Market?
by Jeffrey Kleintop
August 07, 2017

What are fund flows telling us about trends and risks in the global stock market?

An Important Benefit to Global Investors Is Back After 20 Years
by Jeffrey Kleintop
July 24, 2017

What’s happening in the markets that could benefit investors?

Where’s the Next Bubble?
by Jeffrey Kleintop
July 10, 2017

The current candidates for the next bubble do not seem to fit the classic bubble profile and may cause less potential damage if they were to burst, but that doesn't mean they don't carry risks for investors.

Are Bonds Signaling a Major Stock Market Peak?
by Jeffrey Kleintop
June 12, 2017

Does the flattening yield curve in the bond market and rising prices in the stock market reflect a fundamental disagreement on the prospects for the global economy?

The Long Period of Underperformance for Emerging Market Stocks May Finally Be Over
by Jeffrey Kleintop
May 30, 2017

The end of the long period of emerging market stocks’ underperformance is supported by a recent change in trend for each of the four drivers of emerging markets.

Is the Stock Market Just Quiet or Is It Too Quiet?
by Jeffrey Kleintop
May 15, 2017

Does the low volatility and trading volume of this quietly rising stock market mean it’s vulnerable to a sharp pullback on any piece of bad news?

What the Coming Tax Cuts Mean for the Stock Market
by Jeffrey Kleintop
May 01, 2017

The leaders of most major countries are implementing or calling for corporate tax cuts. This may be welcome news for stock market investors since it could mean a boost to after-tax profits.

Missiles and Markets: An Investor Guide to Geopolitical Risks
by Jeffrey Kleintop
April 17, 2017

The long history of U.S. missile strikes and NATO military operations shows us that the market impacts of these geopolitical conflicts have been small and brief.

The Fed has China in a Tough Spot
by Jeffrey Kleintop
March 20, 2017

The Fed rate hike has put China in a tough spot in early 2017. How China responds will be important for global markets as investors assess the trade fallout and growth trajectory for the world’s second largest economy.

The future of Europe: EU 2.0 and its impact on the markets
by Jeffrey Kleintop
March 06, 2017

What does Europe’s future look like and what might it mean for investors?

The Stock Market Sees Nothing to Worry About—That May Be About to Change
by Jeffrey Kleintop
February 21, 2017

Stock markets are currently behaving as if there is nothing to worry about, but that may be about to change now that we are within 45 trading days of the French Presidential election.

Five Reasons to Stay Invested Despite Heightened Uncertainty
by Jeffrey Kleintop
January 23, 2017

There are five reasons to stay invested despite the heightened uncertainty.

The CURE for a calm market: Four risks for 2017
by Jeffrey Kleintop
January 09, 2017

After a calm post-election climb for stocks, developments in China, United Kingdom, Russia, and Europe may bring a return of volatility.

5 Reasons International Stocks May Underperform in 2017
by Jeffrey Kleintop
December 12, 2016

There are five key reasons developed international stocks may lag U.S. stocks again in 2017.

Happy Unrecession: The Alice in Wonderland Economy
by Jeffrey Kleintop
November 28, 2016

While the odd and upside-down developments confronting investors may seem mad, the stock market gains are not as misguided or illogical as they may at first seem.

Global Investing: 6 Trends to Watch
by Jeffrey Kleintop
November 14, 2016

A look at the backdrop for global investing in 2017.

Recession Odds Pass Key Threshold
by Jeffrey Kleintop
October 31, 2016

A reliable historical indicator suggests the events of October may have been more soothing than scary for long-term investors.

Going Godzilla: What has the Bank of Japan Unleashed?
by Jeffrey Kleintop
October 03, 2016

The Bank of Japan faces a rising risk that their policy has created a monster that may be getting harder to control.

Your portfolio may be less diversified than you think
by Jeffrey Kleintop
August 22, 2016

Investors with a large home bias in their portfolio may not be nearly as diversified as they believe.

Five ways investors can make the most of slower growth
by Jeffrey Kleintop
May 31, 2016

Making the most out of a slower growth environment may help define investment success in the coming years leading investors to find bright spots among mega-caps and emerging market stocks.

Trust but Verify: Five Independent Indicators of China’s Economy
by Jeffrey Kleintop
March 07, 2016

Some data coming out of China could be considered questionable. Learn where to look for a more accurate picture.

The Elegance of Indexing
by Schwab Center for Financial Research
June 20, 2014

Investors can diversify and participate in the long-term growth of markets by including index funds in their portfolios.